Mike Novogratz: $1M Bitcoin in 2026 Signals Trouble

Key Takeaways

• Novogratz said Bitcoin at $1 million next year would only happen if the U.S. economy is in serious distress.
  
• Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of around $124,128 this week before pulling back.
  
• He criticized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for failing to reduce debt-to-GDP, warning the deficit is likely to grow.
  
• Novogratz is concerned that the corporate Bitcoin treasury boom shows bubble-like behavior, with Galaxy Digital receiving around five calls weekly from new firms.
  
• VC firm Breed echoed similar concerns, warning only a few treasury companies will survive while others risk a “death spiral” near NAV.
  

Bitcoin’s Rise and Novogratz’s Warning

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz cautioned that Bitcoin reaching the $1 million mark in 2026 would not be a positive milestone, but a sign of deep economic trouble in the United States. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, he said such a surge would only happen if “things are really bad domestically.” He emphasized he would prefer a stable U.S. economy with a lower Bitcoin price rather than the reverse.

The comments came as Bitcoin hit fresh all-time highs of around $124,128 this week before cooling off. The rally reflects growing institutional flows and the broader narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold, but Novogratz noted that severe currency devaluations often harm civil society rather than benefit it.

U.S. Debt Concerns and Treasury Bubble Risks

Beyond price speculation, Novogratz raised concerns about U.S. fiscal policy. He argued that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has failed to bend the debt-to-GDP curve, warning that the federal deficit is poised to climb higher, not lower.

He also flagged risks in the growing wave of companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Galaxy Digital, he said, now receives five calls a week from firms exploring Bitcoin treasury strategies. To him, this rapid adoption feels like the early stages of a bubble: “At some point, that’s what bubbles feel like, when even the cab driver asks about balance sheet companies.”

Venture capital firm Breed has echoed these concerns, warning that only a handful of Bitcoin treasury firms will withstand long-term pressure while many others risk a “death spiral” as they trade close to net asset value.