Gold’s $4,000 Rally Hints Bitcoin Could Reach $644,000

As gold prices hit a record high of nearly $4,000 per ounce, analysts at VanEck say Bitcoin could be worth an “equivalent value” of $644,000. The comparison between gold and Bitcoin is sparking fresh debate over which asset will dominate as the next-generation store of value

• VanEck says gold’s rally implies a $644K price target for Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin could reach half of gold’s market cap after its next halving in 2028.
• Younger investors prefer Bitcoin over gold as a store of value.
• Analysts expect both gold and Bitcoin to continue climbing.
• Bitcoin critics argue the asset still lags behind gold’s performance.

Bitcoin’s long-standing comparison with gold is resurfacing as the precious metal hits new all-time highs. According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, gold’s recent surge above $4,000 per ounce implies a Bitcoin “equivalent value” of around $644,000. Sigel said that VanEck has long believed Bitcoin could reach half of gold’s market cap after its next halving, expected in 2028.

Gold’s rally has been driven by a flight to safety amid geopolitical uncertainty, a weakening U.S. dollar, and ongoing trade tensions. While gold has risen nearly 50% this year, Bitcoin’s performance has also been strong — reaching a new all-time high of over $126,000 on Monday.

Sigel noted that while traditional investors still rely on gold, younger generations increasingly see Bitcoin as the better store of value. “Roughly half of gold’s value comes from its role as a store of value,” he said. “Surveys show that younger consumers, especially in emerging markets, are now choosing Bitcoin for that same purpose.”

Other analysts agree that this generational shift could drive Bitcoin’s growth. Jordi Visser said that younger investors see the financial system as broken, and their support for new forms of value storage could boost Bitcoin adoption over time.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that gold’s rally might continue before seeing any correction, noting that investors chasing “fear of missing out” could face volatility. Meanwhile, gold advocate Peter Schiff reminded traders that Bitcoin, despite reaching a record in USD terms, remains below its peak when priced in gold. Schiff said Bitcoin would need to rise to $148,000 to match its previous gold-denominated high.

However, Bitcoin proponents remain confident. Joe Consorti, head of growth at Theya, said gold’s price surge effectively “lifted Bitcoin’s fair value floor to $1.34 million,” suggesting that even stronger gains could be ahead.

Final Thought

Gold’s surge has reignited the Bitcoin versus gold debate, but this time, digital assets appear to have more momentum. As younger investors pour into Bitcoin and traditional markets remain volatile, VanEck’s $644,000 projection could be more than just speculation — it could mark the next major milestone in Bitcoin’s evolution as digital gold.