Bitcoin Drops Below Key 365-Day Average – Correction or Bear Market Ahead?

• Bitcoin briefly fell below $99,000, breaking its 365-day moving average.
• The 365-day MA has historically signaled major trend shifts.
• Analysts are split on whether this marks a true bear market.
• Some say the drop is just a normal bull-cycle correction.
• Key support remains around $100,000; reclaiming the MA is crucial.

Bitcoin’s latest price drop has reignited one of crypto’s oldest debates: are we still in a bull market, or has a new bear cycle quietly begun? On Tuesday, Bitcoin slipped below $99,000, falling under its 365-day moving average — a widely watched long-term trend indicator. Historically, breaching this line has marked critical turning points. In fact, analysts recall the same signal appearing at the start of the 2022 bear market, leading some traders to panic as the price dipped this week.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that this break below the average is significant, calling it a level Bitcoin must reclaim quickly to avoid deeper downside. According to data, the 365-day moving average sat around $102,000, meaning Bitcoin’s drop placed it decisively beneath a threshold many traders use to distinguish bullish continuation from bearish reversal. However, this is not the first time Bitcoin has tested the range this year — a brief dip occurred in April before the price recovered.

While the move has stirred concern among retail traders, analysts are not unified in calling this a bear market. Bitrue research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima argues that the downturn fits within the framework of a typical bull cycle correction. He pointed out that Bitcoin has now experienced four major drawdowns this cycle, each followed by strong rebounds. Historically, pullbacks of around 20% during a broader uptrend have often led to recoveries of 40% or more within two months.

On the other hand, some investors are treating the situation with caution. The psychological and technical support level of $100,000 is now being closely watched. Tom Cohen, head of investments and trading at Algoz Technology, explained that losing this level decisively could shift sentiment sharply. However, he also suggested that staying above it could set the stage for a year-end rally — sometimes referred to as a “Santa Claus rally” in traditional markets.

The path forward, analysts say, will be influenced by macroeconomic forces more than crypto-native factors. The strengthening U.S. dollar, global liquidity concerns, and upcoming policy decisions — including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December rate announcement and political developments linked to President Trump — are likely to shape Bitcoin’s direction in the short term.

For now, the market sits at a pivotal moment: if Bitcoin can reclaim the 365-day moving average quickly, confidence may return. If not, traders may brace for a longer cooldown.

Final Thought

This isn’t necessarily the start of a bear market — but it is a moment that will define the next phase of price action. Bitcoin is at a crossroads, and what happens around the $100,000 support level will likely determine how the rest of the year plays out.