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Bitcoin Expected to Benefit from Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ Analysts Predict

Key Takeaways:

  • The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed on July 3 without any crypto provisions
  • Bitcoin could benefit from the $5 trillion debt ceiling increase
  • “Crypto Week” planned in Washington with 3 separate crypto bills
  • Analysts warn of broader inflationary and economic impacts

On July 3, the US Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. President Donald Trump’s budget proposal offers little direct benefit to the crypto industry, but could still bring advantages to Bitcoin.

Trump signing the Big Beautiful Bill at White House
Trump signs controversial spending bill ceremony. Source: ABC News

Trump’s budget proposal passed in the late hours of July 3 entirely along partisan lines; only two Republicans voted against this controversial bill, which will significantly increase the US government’s borrowing capacity. The bill has drawn considerable criticism from Democrats and even from current and former Trump allies like Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

Notably absent from the bill were proposed amendments to the cryptocurrency tax code. When the bill was being considered in the Senate, lawmakers attempted to add several crypto-related provisions, but were unsuccessful.

Despite the lack of specific crypto provisions, market observers remain optimistic about the indirect effects it will have on Bitcoin, though these are projected to come amid broader economic upheaval.

Big Beautiful Bill Passed Without Any Crypto Amendments

Leading up to July 3, observers in the crypto space were anticipating a reordering of the American tax code around cryptocurrencies in the Big Beautiful Bill.

Bitcoin mining operations face growing global tax scrutiny. Source: Toptal

Crypto tax service Crypto Tax Made Easy noted clauses in the bill that would redefine rules around airdrops, smooth out reporting requirements for staking, and create better de minimis exceptions, making it easier to spend crypto without triggering a taxable event.

While the bill was still under debate in the Senate, Senator Cynthia Lummis also proposed an amendment that would remove the “double tax” on Bitcoin miners. According to Lummis, miners are currently taxed twice – first when they receive the block reward and then again when they sell the Bitcoin.

Senator Lummis pushes for crypto reforms. Source: Bloomberg

However, the bill draft that passed the Senate and moved to the House of Representatives did not contain any clauses about crypto.

According to Decrypt, efforts to include crypto provisions were a “Hail Mary” in a political process already filled with internal fighting and last-minute bargaining.

Bill Can Still Benefit Bitcoin, But Broader Economic Outlook Isn’t Good

Despite the lack of attention to digital assets, market observers remain optimistic that Bitcoin could see a significant price spike as the bill raises the national debt ceiling — the amount of money the government is allowed to borrow — by $5 trillion, a historic amount.

US debt ceiling increase chart
The US debt ceiling reaches new heights. Source: US Department of Treasury, US Office of Management and Budget

Jessica Riedl, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, said: “President Trump has added more red ink than any president since at least LBJ [Lyndon B. Johnson], and he is doing it on top of deficits that had already been soaring.”

Crypto analyst Ranjay Singh said that, while there may be hills and valleys in the short term, “More debt can lead to more money printing. That’s good for BTC in the long run.”

Nigel Green, CEO of advisory firm deVere Group, said: “Markets have already begun to respond. Long-term yields are creeping up. Oil has moved higher. Gold and Bitcoin are rising on renewed fears about the erosion of purchasing power.”

While Bitcoin holders rejoice as investors flee to inflation-resistant assets, the bill and Bitcoin gains may come at a greater cost to the world economy.

The bill will introduce several tax cuts for the US’s wealthiest. Earners over $1 million are expected to see an after-tax income boost of over 3%, while increasing state and local tax deductions from $10,000 to $40,000 for those earning less than $500,000 annually. Estate tax exemptions were also increased to $15 million.

Increased estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer tax exemption to $15 million after 2025, adjusted for inflation. Source: US Congress 

The bill aims to offset these significant tax reductions and increased government spending with cuts to critical benefits programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Medicaid, as well as income from tariffs. According to Reuters, some 10 countries are expecting letters from the Trump administration announcing 20%-30% hikes in tariffs on July 4.

Green said: “This bill throws open the taps on spending while throttling the flow of global goods. It’s a high-stakes gamble with inflation — and one that the rest of the world will end up paying for.”

This increase in government spending, along with tariffs on global trade, represents a “permanent reordering of the trade and spending model,” he stated.

Trump is set to sign the bill into law on July 4, the US’s Independence Day.

Crypto Week Incoming in Washington

While the world economy and Medicaid recipients are bracing for the impact of the Big Beautiful Bill, pro-crypto lawmakers in Washington are already busy.

House announces July 14 as Crypto Week. Source: House Financial Services Committee

On July 3, Lummis introduced a solo bill to address her aforementioned concerns about the tax code for miners. The bill also contains a de minimis exemption for digital asset transactions and capital gains of $300 or less, with an annual cap of $5,000.

Meanwhile, House Finance Committee Chair French Hill, House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson and Speaker Mike Johnson — all Republicans — announced that the week of July 14 would be “Crypto Week.”

The senators want to pass three separate bills in a week, namely the CLARITY Act, the long-awaited crypto industry framework; the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which would effectively ban a digital dollar; and the Senate’s GENIUS Act, which regulates stablecoins and sets standards for issuers.

In mid-June, Trump pushed lawmakers to get the STABLE Act on his desk “ASAP,” particularly before Congress goes on break in August.

The crypto industry appears to be getting its way in Washington, while the broader economic story of the Trump administration is more controversial.

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