Bitcoin Fear Index Hits Extreme Panic as Analyst Predicts a Tactical Bottom May Be Close

• Bitcoin’s Greed & Fear Index drops under 5 — a record low.
• 10x Research says extreme fear levels often signal a tactical market bottom.
• The 21-day moving average of sentiment has also fallen to 10%.
• Prices may fall further, but a short-term rebound is likely.
• Bitcoin trades around $84,800 after dropping near $80,880.

Bitcoin’s market mood has reached one of its darkest moments this year. According to 10x Research, Bitcoin’s Greed & Fear Index has fallen below 5 points, which shows extreme panic in the crypto market. This index measures how optimistic or fearful traders are, and readings this low are rare.

Right now, the market is deep in the fear zone. Traders are worried about further price drops, and many are selling out of emotion rather than logic. This kind of sentiment usually appears during sharp downturns, when the market becomes too negative.

Despite the fear, analysts at 10x Research believe the market may be close to a tactical bottom, which means a temporary low before a bounce. Their reasoning comes from the 21-day simple moving average of the sentiment index, which has now fallen to 10% — a level that has historically matched key short-term lows for Bitcoin.

Past data shows that whenever this moving average hits the 10% zone, Bitcoin often reacts with a relief rally, even if the main trend is still downward. For example, earlier this year in March, the index hit bottom. The price continued falling into April, but Bitcoin still managed a 10% bounce right after sentiment first reached extreme fear. This shows how quickly the market can react once panic reaches its peak.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, explained that while prices might still drop slightly, the pace of the decline usually slows down once fear becomes extreme. He notes that sentiment bottoms often show up before price bottoms, meaning the emotional low comes first and the price low follows shortly after.

As of now, Bitcoin trades around $84,800, rebounding from a strong dip to $80,880. Even after this small recovery, BTC remains 10% down for the week and 23% down for the month. This steep monthly drop explains why the fear index is so low — many traders are reacting to the rapid downward pressure.

However, analysts highlight that extreme fear is usually a point where smart investors start preparing for opportunities. When sentiment becomes this negative, selling pressure is often close to exhaustion. That’s why such conditions can lead to short-term reversals, even if long-term uncertainty remains.

In simple terms: The market is scared, traders are panicking, but history shows that situations like this often lead to short-term price jumps.

Final Thought

Bitcoin may still face volatility, but extreme fear often creates the conditions for a short-term rebound. With sentiment at record lows and the fear index flashing its strongest warning, a tactical bottom could be developing — giving BTC a chance to bounce soon.