Bitcoin Market Analysis November 2025: Trends and Rotation

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin market analysis shows a major structural reset as price falls from $126,000 to below $90,000 under pressure from ETF outflows, macro tightening, and heavy liquidations.

• Death Cross signals exhaustion, not collapse, mirroring earlier cycle points where selling cooled and market structure stabilized.

• Macro conditions remain hostile, with hawkish Fed expectations, rising real yields, and capital rotation into tech weighing on crypto liquidity.

• Altcoin rotation appears but remains selective, supported by weaker dominance, extreme fear, and isolated strength in Solana, Starknet, and RWAs.

• Critical levels define the next move: a rebound from $88,000–$92,000 could set a floor, while a slide toward $74,000–$76,000 risks extending the reset.

Executive Summary

November 2025 delivered one of the sharpest market resets since 2022. Bitcoin plunged from its $126,000 peak to under $90,000, wiping out the entire year’s gains and dragging total crypto market value from nearly $4 trillion to around $3.2 trillion. The drawdown reflects more than a technical pullback. It signals shifting macro conditions, heavy ETF outflows, and a broad reassessment of risk across global markets.

The key debate now: is this the opening phase of a long bear cycle, or a deep reset that clears the field for a new wave of capital rotation into altcoins? This article shows the market’s direction is shaped where macro trends collide with institutional positioning and a technical structure now under stress.

Structural Analysis of Bitcoin’s Collapse

Bitcoin’s slide has shifted from a routine pullback to a structural breakdown. Momentum has weakened, liquidity has thinned and ETF positioning has turned against the market. The entire setup has tightened enough to force a closer look at where trend pressure is coming from and how much deeper it can run.

Death Cross: Dangerous Technical Signal or Bottom Opportunity?

Bitcoin confirmed a clear Death Cross near $110,000 as the 50-day moving average slipped below the 200-day trendline. This is the fourth appearance of the pattern in the current cycle. The previous three crosses lined up with sharp local bottoms at $25,000 in September 2023, $49,000 in August 2024, and $75,000 in April 2025, giving this latest formation added weight.

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin is now down about 25% from its October peak, with the correction unfolding across 41 days. While the Death Cross is often treated as a bearish trigger, historical data from 2014–2025 presents a more balanced record. Short-term performance after the signal has usually stayed tight, with median returns between 0.25% and 2.35% during the first 1–3 weeks.

This is why the upcoming week is drawing so much attention. As analyst Benjamin Cowen notes, the Death Cross has frequently signaled exhaustion rather than continuation when the broader cycle remains intact.

Key Technical Levels

Bitcoin is trading inside a crowded technical range, and the market is moving through three critical zones one after another:

• Short-term Support ($88,000–$92,000)
This is the first area price is attempting to defend. It sits just below the $92,000–$94,000 Fibonacci pocket, and repeated retests show selling pressure is still dominating this band.

• Structural Support ($74,000–$76,000)
If the short-term zone fails, momentum is likely to pull Bitcoin into this deeper range, which aligns with the April 2025 bottom and the 161.8% extension. Many long-term traders view it as a potential accumulation region.

• Recovery Threshold ($100,000–$107,000)
A meaningful turnaround requires Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 and break above $107,250 with a close over the 200-day moving average. Only then would the broader downtrend be neutralized.

These levels frame the full market setup, and recent price action makes clear how stretched the current structure has become. Next, we will see a layer of pressure comes from ETF flows, which have played a central role in driving November’s volatility.

ETF Impact: Institutional Capital Flow Reversal

A sharp reversal in Bitcoin ETF flows has become a central force behind the recent drop. BlackRock’s IBIT logged a $523.2 million single-day outflow, and spot ETFs as a group have released more than $2.9 billion in November, with $1.4 billion leaving in only 5 sessions. The speed of these redemptions has amplified every leg lower.

Data from Jim Bianco shows the average cost basis for spot ETF holders is $90,146. When Bitcoin trades near this level, most investors sit close to breakeven, creating a natural trigger for profit-taking and accelerating withdrawals around the low-$90,000 range.

Even so, several analysts argue the flows tell a different story from outright capitulation. Large holders and institutional desks appear to be rotating exposure into alternative structures rather than abandoning Bitcoin. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered views the move as a fast reset typical of mid-cycle turbulence, not the start of a deeper structural decline.

Macro Context: Headwinds

The macro landscape in November has tightened across nearly every risk sector. Rate expectations have shifted, liquidity has thinned, and capital rotation has accelerated. These pressures have formed a backdrop where even minor catalysts can produce outsized volatility in crypto.

Federal Reserve: Interest Rate Uncertainty

The upcoming FOMC minutes are being viewed as a major catalyst for short-term direction. If policymakers deliver a more hawkish tone, the probability of Bitcoin revisiting the $90,000 area increases. Strong economic prints and sticky inflation have already forced traders to scale back expectations for a December rate cut.

Higher real yields tend to weigh on non-yielding assets, and Bitcoin has been no exception. The opportunity cost of holding it has risen steadily as rate expectations shift.

The Nvidia Effect and Rotation from Crypto to Tech Stocks

Nvidia’s strong Q3 results and upbeat Q4 guidance triggered a wave of portfolio rebalancing. Part of the market has moved away from crypto and back into traditional tech to capture the ongoing AI momentum. 

The long-term impact strengthens the broader AI narrative, including Web3 projects linked to compute and data. In the short run, however, the shift in capital has added another layer of pressure on digital assets.

Leverage Liquidations: The Domino Effect

A sharp flush in leveraged positions followed Bitcoin’s move below $90,000, with liquidations ranging from $947 million to over $1 billion in a single day. Roughly 170,000–180,000 traders were forced out of their positions as collateral values collapsed.

Forced selling created a feedback loop: liquidations triggered additional sell orders, which drove prices lower and pushed more positions into margin calls. While painful in real time, this type of deleveraging often marks the later stages of a correction and sets the foundation for a more stable base.

These macro shocks have tightened market conditions and left Bitcoin moving through a far more fragile structure than earlier in the year. As Bitcoin absorbs that pressure, attention is shifting to whether altcoins can capitalize on the rotation signals starting to surface.

Altcoin Season Signals: Real or Illusion?

Questions around a potential altcoin rotation have intensified, but the data paints a split picture rather than a clear trend.

Divergence in Dominance Index

Bitcoin Dominance has slipped from 61% to 58.8% this month, a meaningful move for a metric that usually shifts slowly. At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index has climbed to a one-month high, suggesting improving relative strength outside Bitcoin. Several analysts expect dominance to drift toward 54% if current market structure continues to soften.

Analyst Don highlights a developing head-and-shoulders setup on the dominance chart, a pattern often linked to capital rotation into higher-beta assets. In his view, the structure signals growing vulnerability in Bitcoin’s relative strength and raises the probability of capital seeking upside elsewhere. His assessment points to a rotation window drawing closer, even if broad momentum has yet to confirm it.

Market Sentiment: “Extreme Fear” and Opportunity

Sentiment has reset sharply. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 10, placing the market deep in Extreme Fear territory. Historically, altcoins have often begun to recover during periods of maximum doubt, when liquidity becomes selective and traders pull back from leverage. 

Analyst Merlijn argues that altcoin phases tend to ignite when confidence evaporates rather than when enthusiasm peaks. Even so, not every signal supports this narrative. Several analysts point to the lack of strong follow-through among major altcoins, and on-chain activity remains steady with no spike in fees or congestion, conditions usually present during real rotation cycles.

ETH/BTC: The Decisive Trading Pair

Ethereum trades near $2,940, down roughly 6% on the day and hovering just above the key $3,000 psychological line. The ETH/BTC pair, widely viewed as the cleanest measure of altcoin strength, is sitting on a decisive support zone. A rebound here would signal improving appetite for rotation and strengthen the case for an emerging altcoin phase. A breakdown would point to fading risk tolerance and raise the probability of a deeper slide across the entire sector.

Altcoin signals, taken together, offer a picture that remains split. Dominance is weakening, sentiment has reset to extremes, and rotation patterns are starting to form, yet broad participation is still missing. The market is caught between early structural hints of rotation and a lack of strong confirmation from major assets. Until ETH/BTC resolves its current position, altcoins will continue to trade without a clear lead narrative.

As the rotation debate builds, attention now shifts to where capital is quietly flowing and which narratives are beginning to separate from the broader market.

Bright Spots in the Darkness

Even as the broader market struggles, a few narratives have managed to attract steady inflows and stand apart from the correction.

Solana ETF and Capital Flow Shifts

Solana continues to draw interest through its spot ETF, which has now logged seven straight days of inflows. The move signals growing demand for alternative Layer-1 exposure at a time when Bitcoin and Ethereum funds are facing heavy redemptions. Capital may be leaving the majors, but it is not abandoning the asset class. It is simply being redistributed.

Starknet and Bitcoin Layer-2 Narrative

Starknet has also emerged as a clear outperformer. STRK posted gains close to 10% after the network shifted more aggressively toward Bitcoin’s ecosystem. Native support for Bitcoin staking, developed in partnership with Anchorage Digital, has pushed Starknet into the center of the expanding BTCFi narrative and given the token a level of resilience missing from most L2s during this pullback.

Real World Assets (RWA): Telcoin and the Compliance Future

RWA momentum continues to build as well. Telcoin secured approval from the Nebraska Department of Banking, becoming the first blockchain-native institution to operate as a regulated U.S. bank. The milestone reinforces the view that compliance-ready RWA models will play a major role in the next growth phase and may offer one of the most durable narratives in this cycle.

Analysis and Scenarios

The market now sits at a crossroads where three distinct paths are taking shape, each driven by a different mix of structural, macro, and sentiment dynamics.

Bear Case Scenario: Long-term Bear Market

Several analysts argue Bitcoin has entered an extremely weak phase, pointing to fading on-chain inflows, soft network activity, and valuation metrics that have begun to flatten. Trader “Mr. Wall Street” views the $126,000 peak as the cycle top and frames the current structure as the early stage of a multi-year correction. In this view, the $74,000–$82,000 range forms the primary support band for a prolonged downtrend.

Bull Case Scenario: Correction Within Bull Market

Others see a very different picture. Many analysts note that Death Cross signals inside bull markets often precede expansions to new highs rather than sustained declines. Forecasts for 2025 remain constructive, with several reputable models projecting upside toward $200,000. Key drivers behind the previous leg: spot ETF demand, rising real-world utility, and broader institutional adoption remain intact. With total crypto capitalization near $3.27 trillion and Bitcoin still holding above $2 trillion, the structural base of the market has not broken.

Selective Altcoin Season Scenario

A third scenario focuses on rotation rather than a broad trend reversal. Instead of a full altcoin cycle, capital may concentrate on projects with clear catalysts and strong independent momentum. Weakening Bitcoin Dominance, deep market skepticism, and early signs of liquidity returning into specific sectors support this view. Under this scenario, leadership would come from narratives and fundamentals rather than the entire altcoin complex rising in unison.

Conclusion

November 2025 has pushed the crypto market into a decisive phase. Bitcoin has taken the brunt of macro pressure, ETF outflows, and a wave of forced liquidations, sending price from $126,000 to the low $90,000 range. The structure has weakened, yet the latest Death Cross mirrors earlier points in this cycle where selling exhaustion formed instead of a prolonged collapse.

Across alternative assets, rotation signals are emerging but lack uniform strength. Bitcoin Dominance has slipped, sentiment has sunk into Extreme Fear, and a handful of names have begun to outperform the broader market. These shifts point toward a selective rotation, not a full altseason. Confirmation now depends heavily on Ethereum holding its ground and the ETH/BTC pair defending support, since that relationship often sets the tone for the rest of the market.

The coming week carries unusually high importance. A rebound from the $88,000–$92,000 area would stabilize the structure and give rotation room to expand. A slide into the $74,000–$76,000 region would extend the reset and delay any meaningful recovery. In the current environment, disciplined allocation and selective positioning will offer a clear edge as the market moves into its next phase.