Bitcoin’s $8B Realized Cap Grows, but ETF Demand Weak

Key Takeaways
• Bitcoin’s $8B in a week, surpassing $1.1 trillion.
• ETFs and MicroStrategy remain the main demand channels, but both have slowed their buying activity.
• Rising hashrate and miner expansion show long-term bullish sentiment.
• Analysts say Bitcoin could reach $140,000 in November if ETF inflows rebound.

Onchain Data Shows Strength, but Demand Drivers Stall

Bitcoin’s onchain data is signaling renewed strength even as sentiment across the market remains cautious. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s realized capitalization — the total value of all BTC based on their last moved price — climbed by more than $8 billion last week to surpass $1.1 trillion.

This uptick means that more money has flowed into Bitcoin’s network, pushing its realized price above $110,000. “Realized cap” is often viewed as a more stable metric than market price, reflecting genuine capital inflows rather than short-term speculation.

However, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, warned that the recovery remains fragile. He noted that demand from key institutional players such as Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy has slowed.

“Demand is now driven mostly by ETFs and MicroStrategy, both slowing buys recently. If these two channels recover, market momentum likely returns,” Ju wrote on X.

Despite reduced institutional appetite, Ju described Bitcoin as a growing “money vessel,” pointing to ongoing network expansion and rising mining activity as indicators of long-term confidence.

Miners Expand Operations as Analysts Eye $140K Target

Bitcoin’s mining sector continues to expand aggressively, reinforcing bullish expectations. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s hashrate — a measure of computational power securing the network — has been climbing steadily, signaling sustained investment from miners.

“Hashrate growth remains one of the clearest long-term bullish indicators,” Ju added, citing it as evidence that miners are confident in Bitcoin’s future profitability.

Among those expanding operations is American Bitcoin, a mining company linked to the Trump family, which purchased over 17,000 ASIC machines worth $314 million in August. Similar investments from large miners have continued to strengthen the network’s fundamentals despite volatile market conditions.

Still, short-term price momentum has struggled to recover. Investor sentiment remains trapped in “fear” territory following the $19 billion crypto market crash in early October. The broader market showed little response even after the White House announced a trade agreement between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping over the weekend.

Analysts at Bitfinex believe a turnaround could come if ETF inflows return and the Federal Reserve announces monetary easing. “Our base case sees Bitcoin rising towards $140,000, with total ETF inflows between $10 and $15 billion not being surprising,” the analysts told Cointelegraph.

They added that potential catalysts include two Fed rate cuts in Q4, stronger ETF inflows, and seasonal year-end demand, though tariff risks and global uncertainty could still weigh on markets.

While Bitcoin’s realized cap signals money is flowing back into the network, sustained recovery will likely depend on whether institutional demand returns, and whether ETF buyers once again step in to fill the sails of the “Bitcoin money vessel.”