From PayPal to X: Elon Musk’s 25-Year Financial Vision

When the man who co-founded PayPal, who once used a single tweet to pump Dogecoin by 1,100%, now announces a real-time crypto price display feature on a platform with 700 million users — this could be the final move in a plan spanning a quarter century.

Chapter 1: The Man And The Dream Of "X"

In 1999, a 28-year-old South African founded a company with a peculiar name: X.com. It was not a space technology or electric vehicle startup. It was an online payment company with the ambition of becoming the world’s first “internet bank.”
And that young man was Elon Musk.

X.com later merged with Peter Thiel’s Confinity to become PayPal. In 2000, Musk became CEO, but a power struggle with Thiel led to his removal from the position while he was on vacation. PayPal was subsequently renamed, and Musk departed, yet he carried the dream of “X” with him for the next two decades.

In 2017, Musk repurchased the domain X.com. In 2022, he spent $44 billion to acquire Twitter. In 2023, he renamed Twitter to X. In the announcement, he wrote with clear intent: “Twitter was acquired by X Corp not only to ensure freedom of speech but also as an accelerant for X, the everything app. This is not simply a company renaming itself but doing the same thing.”

25 years after X.com, Elon Musk is attempting to complete his unfinished work.

Chapter 2: TikTok Shop — When Entertainment Becomes Commerce

Before analyzing X's latest move, let's look at a successful case study: TikTok Shop.

In 2016, TikTok, known as Douyin in China, launched as a pure short video entertainment app. Few expected it to evolve into a competitor to Amazon. At the time, ByteDance, its parent company, focused primarily on advertising revenue and user acquisition.

Over time, the company observed a critical behavioral shift. Users were not only watching videos but were increasingly interested in purchasing the products they encountered in their feeds. Research showed that 71.2% of TikTok users felt inspired to shop after discovering a product organically in their feed rather than through active search.

In 2020, TikTok partnered with Shopify. In 2022, TikTok Shop entered beta testing in the UK and Southeast Asia, followed by an official launch in the US in September 2023.

The results after just over 2 years were significant. US sales grew from near zero to 15.82 billion dollars in 2025. Growth reached 407% in 2024 and continued at 108% in 2025. Nielsen IQ described TikTok Shop as the fastest growing online retailer of 2024. A total of 71.4 million Americans have made purchases through TikTok Shop, with an average annual spending of 708 dollars per person.

Rachel Wolff, an analyst at Emarketer, explained that TikTok’s ability to blend shopping with entertainment is turning the platform into an e-commerce powerhouse. While consumers remain sensitive to pricing, they also seek enjoyment in the shopping experience, a demand that TikTok Shop is well positioned to meet.

According to Bain and Company, TikTok Shop’s success lies in its closed loop journey, where users discover products, engage with content, and complete purchases without leaving the app. Unlike Amazon, where users typically arrive with a clear search intent, TikTok Shop converts entertainment driven browsing into purchasing behavior.

Short videos account for 58% of TikTok Shop sales, while influencers generated 5.4 billion dollars in GMV. What began as an entertainment platform has effectively transformed into a commerce empire.

Chapter 3: X And TikTok — Surprisingly Similar

When comparing X and TikTok, structural similarities stand out more clearly than surface level differences.

Regarding user scale, TikTok reaches 1.37 billion users worldwide, including 170 million in the US. X reports approximately 700 million users globally.

Their current roles differ in format rather than function. TikTok operates as a short video entertainment platform, while X functions as a real time hub for news and discussion.

The core similarity lies in information discovery. Both platforms act as primary entry points where users encounter new ideas and narratives. TikTok delivers discovery through video, while X delivers it through text based conversations. Each platform supports a strong creator and KOL ecosystem, and both are actively building payment infrastructure.

User behavior also follows a comparable path. On TikTok, users scroll through content, notice a compelling product, and proceed to purchase. On X, the potential journey involves reading asset related discussions, viewing real time prices, and moving toward execution.

Crypto researcher Kryll commented on Smart Cashtags, emphasizing that friction extends beyond price checking to include the full journey from discovery to research and eventual purchase. Smart Cashtags, he argued, compress this process into a single tap.

This mechanism mirrors what enabled TikTok Shop to succeed in commerce. The remaining question is whether X can apply the same model within finance.

Chapter 4: Elon Musk — From "Bitcoin Is Almost BS" To $1.5 Billion Investment

To understand where X is heading, we need to understand the man behind it, and his complex relationship with crypto.

4.1. The Skeptical Years (2014-2019)

In March 2014, when asked about cryptocurrency, Musk responded rather skeptically. He remained silent throughout the "crypto winter" of 2014-2017.

But in February 2019, on a podcast with Cathie Wood (Ark Invest), Musk changed his tone: "I think the Bitcoin structure is quite brilliant. There's some merit to Ethereum as well."

4.2. Dogecoin — "The People's Coin" (2019-present)

In April 2019, Musk tweeted about Dogecoin for the first time: "Dogecoin might be my fav cryptocurrency. It's pretty cool." DOGE rose from $0.002 to $0.004 within days.

From then, Musk's relationship with DOGE became almost legendary:

• February 2021: Musk called DOGE "the people's crypto" → DOGE surged over 50% within hours
• April 1, 2021: Musk tweeted SpaceX would put Dogecoin on the moon → DOGE exploded from $0.06 to $0.73 within a month — its all-time high
• He dubbed himself "The Dogefather," appeared on Saturday Night Live to talk about DOGE

Musk explained his DOGE preference on the Lex Fridman podcast: faster transaction speeds and lower fees than Bitcoin. But he also admitted he had talked to workers at Tesla and SpaceX — people who owned DOGE — and that's why he considers DOGE "the people's coin."

Currently, Tesla accepts DOGE as payment for official merchandise.

4.3. Bitcoin — From Skepticism To $1.5 Billion Investment (2020-2021)

In December 2020, Musk shocked everyone by tweeting: "Bitcoin is almost as bad as fiat money." The crypto community was furious.

But less than 2 months later, in February 2021, Tesla announced a $1.5 billion Bitcoin investment. The news pushed BTC from $38,000 to $58,000 — a new all-time high. Musk became the crypto community's hero.

Then everything reversed. In May 2021, Tesla announced it would stop accepting Bitcoin due to energy consumption concerns from mining. Bitcoin dropped 12% immediately. The crypto community turned to criticize Musk for "market manipulation."

SpaceX still holds over $850 million in Bitcoin reserves.

4.4. "The Musk Effect", And Its Decline

During 2020-2022, a single Musk tweet could pump DOGE by 30-50% within hours. But the market has become "immune." In 2022, Musk and his companies faced a $258 billion lawsuit alleging Dogecoin price manipulation. In August 2024, he won the lawsuit.

Phemex analyzed: "The original Musk Effect (2020-2022) was driven by social media hype and caused extreme short-term volatility. This effect has significantly diminished due to market maturity, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, and investor fatigue."

But "Musk Effect 2.0" is forming, not from tweets, but from integrating crypto into his companies' core infrastructure.

Chapter 5: X Money, XChat, Smart Cashtags — The Pieces Coming Together

What makes X’s approach compelling is the way its components connect and reinforce one another. Each launch establishes infrastructure supporting the next stage, forming a cohesive path toward a financial ecosystem.

The strategic sequencing follows a clear order. Payments arrive first through X Money, followed by secure communications via XChat, and then financial data integration through Smart Cashtags. This structure aligns with how traditional financial institutions operate. Payment rails enable transactions. Secure communication channels support handling sensitive financial information. Real time market data allows trading activity to function effectively.

Musk focuses on building infrastructure layers designed to scale over time.

This strategy closely parallels the evolution of WeChat in China. WeChat began as a messaging platform in 2011, added payments in 2013, and progressively integrated commerce and investment services. Over time, it became a platform where 1 billion Chinese users manage significant parts of their financial lives. Each additional layer strengthens user lock in and increases overall platform value.

5.1. X Money + Visa (January 2025)

In January 2025, X announced a partnership with Visa to launch the X Money Account, a digital wallet designed to support fund transfers between bank accounts and the X wallet, instant peer to peer payments similar to Venmo and Zelle, and debit card connectivity.

CEO Linda Yaccarino described the launch as another milestone for the Everything App. X Payments LLC has secured licensing in 41 US states.

Visa CEO Ryan McInerney confirmed that 600 million X users will soon gain the ability to move money in and out of X Money instantly.

During a leaked internal meeting, Musk outlined a broader vision behind the initiative, stating, “When I say payments, I actually mean someone’s entire financial life.”

The partnership with Visa carries significant strategic weight. Visa contributes credibility, regulatory expertise, and established infrastructure. X gains immediate access to mature payment rails without years of internal development. Visa, in turn, gains exposure to 600 million potential users, creating a distribution channel larger than the population of most countries.

A deeper layer of strategy emerges through Visa Direct, the technology underpinning X Money. Visa Direct enables real time fund transfers and relies on infrastructure that could support instant crypto on and off ramps in the future. The payment rails being built for fiat transactions may later extend to digital asset movements.

5.2. XChat (June 2025)

X introduced XChat as a messaging system with end to end encryption, supporting disappearing messages, file sharing, and audio and video calls. Musk described the technology as using “Bitcoin style encryption.”

In November 2025, Musk confirmed the rollout of an entirely new communications stack, adding that X Money would be launching soon.

The presence of Bitcoin style encryption serves a clear purpose. Financial activity demands stronger security guarantees than standard social messaging. XChat functions as the secure communication layer required for financial services rather than a simple competitor to existing messaging apps.

If X enables users to discuss and execute trades in the future, those conversations may involve material non-public information. Secure encryption reduces regulatory and legal exposure associated with handling sensitive financial discussions. XChat addresses this requirement in advance.

The launch timing further reinforces this strategy. XChat arrived months before the announcement of Smart Cashtags. Secure infrastructure came first, followed by the financial data layer. Infrastructure leads, and features build on top.

5.3. Smart Cashtags (January 2026)

The latest piece arrived on January 11, 2026, when Nikita Bier, X’s Head of Product and a Solana advisor, announced the launch of Smart Cashtags.

Bier explained that X has become a primary source for financial news, with hundreds of billions of dollars deployed based on information users consume on the platform. Smart Cashtags allow users to specify an exact asset or smart contract when posting a ticker. From the timeline, users can tap a cashtag to view its real time price alongside all related mentions.

The underlying API supports near real time data for any asset minted on chain. Demo images showcased the BONK token from the Solana ecosystem and BASE from the Base ecosystem.

When asked whether future functionality could allow trading on X through self custodial wallets, Bier responded with a “👀” emoji, signaling open possibilities without formal confirmation.

5.4. The Hidden Architecture

What's not being discussed publicly is equally important. The combination of X Money (payment rails), XChat (secure communications), and Smart Cashtags (real-time financial data) creates a complete stack for financial services:

• Data Layer: Smart Cashtags provide real-time pricing, sentiment aggregation, and asset discovery
• Communication Layer: XChat enables secure discussion of financial matters
• Transaction Layer: X Money provides the payment infrastructure to move funds

The only missing piece? Execution — the actual ability to buy and sell assets. And that's precisely what the demo's "Buy & Sell" buttons hint at.

If X adds execution capabilities through partnerships (Coinbase, Robinhood, traditional brokers) or builds its own, the entire financial journey — from discovery to discussion to transaction — happens within one app. No switching between Twitter for research, TradingView for charts, and Coinbase for execution. Everything in one place.

This is exactly what Musk meant by "someone's entire financial life."

Chapter 6: X And TikTok — Similarities And Differences

TikTok Shop's success wasn't luck. And when placing X alongside TikTok, the similarities and differences become clear.

The Similarities

Despite operating in different domains, TikTok Shop and X share core structural mechanics that link content discovery, creator influence, and platform infrastructure to transaction outcomes.

The Differences

While X and TikTok Shop share several structural similarities, the differences between the two platforms are more critical. These gaps span product risk, regulation, trust, and operational complexity, shaping very different execution challenges.

X has many advantages similar to TikTok Shop. But X is also playing a much harder game — with higher risks, more complex regulations, and greater trust requirements.

Chapter 7: Market Reactions

Initial responses to Smart Cashtags revealed a clear split within the crypto community. Reactions clustered into two distinct camps, reflecting both optimism around distribution potential and skepticism toward execution risk.

7.1. Positive Reactions

Several ecosystem players and industry figures reacted quickly, viewing the announcement as a strategic opportunity.

• Solana (official account) highlighted the appearance of BONK in the demo images, effectively turning the launch into a visibility win for the ecosystem.
• CZ (Binance) commented that he remains a small shareholder and prefers to observe further developments. When concerns surfaced about potential liquidity competition between blockchains, he emphasized coexistence, noting that multi chain support remains viable.
• Nina Rong, Growth Director at BNB Chain, reportedly reached out privately to Nikita Bier to confirm that BSC stands ready to support potential integration.
• Mert Mumtaz, CEO of Helius, a core Solana infrastructure provider, publicly offered technical support for Solana related integrations.
• AB Kuai Dong, an industry analyst, suggested that X could function as the discovery and entry layer, while execution may come through partnerships with Coinbase or traditional brokerages.

These responses frame X as a potential distribution layer rather than a direct competitor to existing trading platforms.

7.2. Skeptical Reactions

Skepticism emerged alongside enthusiasm, focusing primarily on execution quality and platform credibility.

• Crypto KOL Weituo dismissed Smart Cashtags as a replication of existing Binance features. Based on X’s current group chat experience, he expressed low confidence in X’s ability to deliver reliable wallet or trading functionality.
• Retail users voiced broader frustration, with some claiming that X has weakened crypto discourse through spam and low signal content, comparing its current state unfavorably to LinkedIn.

These critiques highlight persistent concerns around product maturity, trust, and content quality.

Chapter 8: So Where Is X Heading?

Let's look at the big picture.

In 1999, Elon Musk founded X.com with the dream of creating the first "internet bank." He was ousted from PayPal, but kept that dream for 25 years.

In 2022, he bought Twitter. In 2023, renamed it X. In 2025, launched X Money with Visa and XChat with encryption. In 2026, Smart Cashtags with real-time crypto data.

These aren't random moves. This is a roadmap.

TikTok took 3 years to go from "video platform" to "$15.82 billion in e-commerce sales." X may be following a similar path — but for finance instead of commerce.

Musk once said: "When I say payments, I actually mean someone's entire financial life."

Smart Cashtags may just be the first step. Display information. Then wallet. Then trading. Then "entire financial life."

Conclusion: 25 Years After X.com

Elon Musk has long been intertwined with finance and crypto. As a co-founder of PayPal, he helped build one of the most successful online payment platforms in history. He holds Bitcoin and Ethereum and has shown a clear affinity for Dogecoin, using his public influence during earlier market cycles as DOGE rose from 0.002 dollars to 0.73 dollars. Tesla and SpaceX together continue to hold more than 850 million dollars in Bitcoin.

He also controls X, a platform with roughly 700 million users, where, in his own words, hundreds of billions of dollars are allocated based on information people consume there.

TikTok Shop demonstrated how a content driven platform can evolve into a powerful commerce channel. Smart Cashtags suggest that X is moving along a comparable path, focused on financial activity rather than retail transactions.

Whether X can emerge as a next generation electronic trading gateway remains uncertain. Outcomes will hinge on regulation, technology execution, competitive pressure, and, above all, user trust in allowing the platform to handle their money.

One conclusion stands out. 25 years after X.com, Musk continues to pursue the same vision. This time, he does so with a global user base, established payment infrastructure through Visa, and the full reach of the Crypto Twitter ecosystem already in place.