JPMorgan Keeps Neutral Rating on Bullish, Cuts 2026 Price Target to $45
- JPMorgan maintains a “Neutral” rating on Bullish (BLSH).
- 2026 price target lowered from $46 to $45 after removing stablecoin promotion income.
- Q3 results beat expectations on revenue and EBITDA.
- Analysts reduce 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates.
- Strong Q4 trends expected with higher volatility and new product launches.
JPMorgan has kept its Neutral rating on Bullish, the crypto exchange that recently posted stronger-than-expected third-quarter results. Even with the solid performance, the bank slightly cut its December 2026 price target to $45, down from $46. The adjustment reflects the removal of stablecoin promotion income that came from Bullish’s $1.2 billion IPO proceeds. JPMorgan wants its valuation to focus only on the company’s core performance, not temporary investment gains.
Bullish reported Q3 adjusted diluted EPS of $0.10, which matched Bloomberg’s expectations. Revenue reached $77 million, beating both the $74 million consensus and JPMorgan’s own estimate. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $29 million, higher than the $26 million expected.
Much of the upside came from Subscription Services & Other (SS&O) revenue, which reached $50 million. This was a major jump from $12 million in the same period last year. It even exceeded JPMorgan’s forecast of $47 million, despite what the analysts described as a “seasonally weaker” schedule.
However, JPMorgan explained that about $6.2 million of the SS&O revenue came from stablecoin promotion payments linked to the company’s IPO cash. Since this money carries nearly 100% margin, removing it from the model gives a clearer picture of true operating performance. Without this one-time benefit, JPMorgan says Bullish’s adjusted EBITDA for the quarter would have been around $22.4 million instead of $29 million.
This adjustment led the analysts to lower their 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates. They now expect:
- 2025 adjusted EPS: reduced to $0.31 from $0.44
- 2026 adjusted EPS: reduced to $0.93 from $1.29
These cuts mainly reflect the removal of investment income generated from the IPO funds. While JPMorgan projects Bullish will still earn about $12 million in stablecoin promotion revenue in Q4 — and potentially $37 million per year in 2027 — they are keeping this income out of their core valuation.
Despite the reductions, JPMorgan remains positive about activity heading into Q4. The analysts note that a more constructive trading environment is forming, thanks to higher volatility. In October, monthly volatility jumped 46% for Bitcoin and 12% for Ethereum, helping boost trading volumes across platforms.
The bank also highlighted two key growth drivers for Bullish:
- Earlier-than-expected launch of options trading, giving users new ways to trade and hedge.
- Continued U.S. institutional onboarding, helped by the company’s recent New York BitLicense approval in October.
With these developments, JPMorgan believes Bullish is positioned for stronger performance in the short term — even if the bank’s long-term valuation has been adjusted to better reflect core fundamentals.
Final Thought
JPMorgan’s updated view shows a mix of caution and optimism. While the bank has trimmed earnings estimates and lowered the price target to account for non-core income, it still sees improving market conditions and new product rollouts supporting Bullish’s growth. The Neutral rating suggests that while the company has potential upside, investors should watch how the core business performs without the boost from IPO-related income.
