Novogratz: Bitcoin’s ‘Biggest Bullish Catalyst’ Could Be Next Fed Chair Selection

Key Takeaways

• Mike Novogratz identifies the next Fed chair selection as Bitcoin’s biggest potential bullish catalyst
• Bitcoin could reach $200,000 if a dovish Fed chair replaces Jerome Powell
• Aggressive rate cuts could trigger an “explosive moment” for Bitcoin and crypto markets
• Novogratz warns this scenario would be detrimental to US economic independence
• Trump has narrowed Fed chair candidates to three: Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh
• Market unlikely to price in dovish scenario until official announcement is made

The Potential Game-Changer for Bitcoin

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes Bitcoin’s price could surge significantly if the next Federal Reserve chair candidate replacing Jerome Powell adopts an extremely dovish position. Mike Novogratz discusses Bitcoin outlook Source: FINTECH.TV

“That’s the biggest potential bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and the rest of crypto,” Novogratz stated in a YouTube interview with Kyle Chasse.

The $200,000 Bitcoin Scenario

Novogratz explained that if the Fed cuts interest rates when it shouldn’t, pumping massive liquidity into the market, it could lead to an “explosive moment” for Bitcoin, currently trading at $109,409.

“Could Bitcoin reach $200,000? Of course it could… Because it would become a completely different conversation if that happens,” he said.

However, Novogratz emphasized that while this aggressive rate-cutting scenario would benefit cryptocurrency, it comes at a steep cost. “Do I want that to happen? No. Why? Because I’m quite patriotic,” he stated.

Bitcoin price model projections Source: ForkLog

Not a Good Scenario for America

“This would be really bad for America,” Novogratz warned, adding that the Federal Reserve would likely lose its independence.

A dovish stance from the Fed is generally expected to weaken the US dollar. However, this is typically viewed as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets, as traditional assets like bonds and term deposits become less attractive to investors.

Daleep Singh, vice chairman and global economist at PGIM Fixed Income, recently agreed with Novogratz’s assessment: “It’s very likely that the FOMC will have a completely different look and behavior” after Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

Singh added: “Cyclically, I think the risks to the dollar are trending downward.”

The “Oh Shit Moment”

Novogratz warned that if Trump fulfills his promise to appoint “a dovish person,” it could trigger an “oh shit moment.”

“Gold would skyrocket… Bitcoin would skyrocket,” Novogratz said.

He added: “People have priced in that he’ll choose a tough person, but no one can be certain.”

Novogratz indicated this potential scenario likely won’t be reflected in the market until the official decision is announced. “I don’t think the market will believe Trump will do something crazy until he actually does it,” Novogratz stated.

The Fed Chair Candidates

According to reports, Trump has narrowed the list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair position to three people: White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.

“You could say those are the three most important things,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on September 6.

The Fed implemented its first 25 basis point rate cut in September, a move largely anticipated by the market, but Waller had urged rate cuts as early as July.