• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $194.6 million in net outflows on Thursday — the largest single-day withdrawal in two weeks.
• BlackRock’s IBIT led outflows with $112.9M, Fidelity’s FBTC followed with $54.2M.
• ETF trading volume fell to $3.1 billion, down from $4.2B (Wed) and $5.3B (Tue).
• Analysts link outflows to basis trade unwinds as futures–spot spreads compressed.
• BTC traded near $91,989, after briefly dipping to about $84,000 earlier in the week.
• Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded $41.6M in outflows; Grayscale ETHE saw $30.9M leave.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $194.6 million of net outflows on Thursday — the largest daily exit since Nov. 20 and a sharp jump from Wednesday’s $14.9 million outflow. The move shows how quickly ETF flows can swing in a volatile market environment and highlights how traders are reacting to tighter spreads and macro headlines.

Data shows the biggest withdrawals came from the largest products:

• BlackRock’s IBIT — $112.9 million outflow.
• Fidelity’s FBTC — $54.2 million outflow.
  Other funds such as VanEck’s HODL, Grayscale’s GBTC, and Bitwise’s BITB also recorded outflows, signaling a broad-based rotation rather than a single-fund event.

ETF trading volume dropped to $3.1 billion on Thursday, down from $4.2B on Wednesday and $5.3B on Tuesday. Falling volume often accompanies larger outflows because fewer traders are willing to take the other side of trades during heightened volatility. Lower liquidity can amplify price moves, which in turn may force more tactical reallocations by arbitrageurs and market makers.

Why the outflows happened: basis trades and volatility

Analysts point to basis trade unwinds as a primary driver. Basis trades involve arbitrageurs buying spot Bitcoin and selling futures (or vice versa) to capture the spread. When the futures–spot spread compresses below the breakeven level, arbitrageurs face losses and may be forced to unwind positions — which means selling spot exposures, including ETF holdings.

Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, said this compression forced arbitrageurs to sell holdings amid heightened market volatility. In short: compressed spreads + volatility = forced selling by traders who run leverage or tight hedges.

Traders are also watching the macro schedule closely. Key events include upcoming U.S. inflation releases and the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 rate decision. Market participants are pricing scenarios where a 25 basis point cut could be signaled — which might stabilize risk assets — but uncertainty ahead of those events often triggers de-risking and short-term outflows.

On-chain context and structural supply trends

Exchange supply remains an important backdrop. Timothy Misir, BRN’s head of research, noted that exchange balances have fallen to roughly 1.8 million BTC — the lowest since 2017 based on aggregated on-chain data. Lower exchange balances mean less readily available supply for sale, which can support price over time even while ETFs see short-term outflows.

Misir described the market as having “quiet strength”: accumulation continues, supply on exchanges is thinning, and price is holding above what he calls the True Market Mean. Yet, he said the market lacks a clear breakout into the $96K–$106K band — a level traders watch for sustained bullish momentum.

Price action: dip, rebound, and sentiment

Bitcoin slid about 1.4% during the 24-hour window and traded around $91,989 as of early Friday. The coin briefly fell to roughly $84,000 earlier in the week before recovering. The intraday swings illustrate how sensitive BTC remains to both liquidity shifts and macro headlines.

The outflow trend was not limited to Bitcoin. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $41.6 million in net outflows on Thursday, reversing a strong inflow of $140.2 million the day before. Grayscale’s ETHE led the outflows among Ethereum products with $30.9 million pulled out, showing cross-asset fund rotation and short-term risk-off behavior across crypto ETFs.

What this means short-term and what to watch next

• Short-term: Expect heightened sensitivity to macro prints (inflation, Fed guidance). Traders may continue to unwind basis trades while spreads normalize.
  
• Medium-term: Falling exchange balances are bullish structurally, but ETF flows can keep sentiment choppy. A clean breakout above the $96K–$106K band could restore stronger inflows.
  
• Signals to watch: futures–spot basis levels, ETF trading volumes, upcoming inflation data, and the Fed’s Dec. 10 decision. Positive surprises on easing or clear dovish signals could flip sentiment quickly; hawkish surprises could deepen outflows.
  

Final Thought

Thursday’s $194.6M outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs underlines how fragile fund flows can be during periods of compressed spreads and macro uncertainty. While ETF withdrawals can pressure prices in the very short term, on-chain indicators like low exchange balances and continued accumulation suggest the market retains structural support. Traders should watch macro events and basis levels closely — they will likely dictate whether this is a temporary rotation or the start of a longer pullback.