US Crypto ETF Approval Odds Surge to 90% as SEC Shifts Regulatory Stance
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing unprecedented optimism as Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have dramatically increased their approval odds for US crypto ETFs to “90% or higher,” marking a significant shift in regulatory sentiment at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Bloomberg Analysts Revise ETF Approval Probability Upward
ETF approval odds surge
The revision comes after what analysts describe as “very positive” engagement from the SEC, suggesting a fundamental change in the regulator’s approach to cryptocurrency-based investment products. This development represents a stark contrast to the SEC’s previously cautious stance on crypto ETF approvals.
Leading Altcoins Position for ETF Success
Three cryptocurrencies have emerged as frontrunners for ETF approval, with analysts assigning 95% approval odds to Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP. This elevated confidence stems from the SEC’s apparent classification of these assets as commodities rather than securities, placing them outside the commission’s direct regulatory jurisdiction.
Top ETF candidates
Additional cryptocurrencies including Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) maintain 90% approval odds, indicating broad-based regulatory acceptance across major digital assets.
Bitcoin ETF Success Drives Market Enthusiasm
The optimism surrounding altcoin ETFs builds upon the remarkable success of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in January 2024 and exceeded all expectations. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) achieved a historic milestone by surpassing $70 billion in assets under management within just 341 days, establishing it as the most successful US ETF launch in history.
Bitcoin ETF flows
However, the enthusiasm is tempered by the mixed performance of Ethereum ETFs, which launched in July 2024 but have struggled to replicate Bitcoin’s success, with many investors remaining “substantially underwater” according to Glassnode data.
Timeline and Market Implications
While approval odds have increased significantly, analysts caution that the timing remains uncertain. The approval process could extend several months, potentially reaching completion by October 2025 or beyond. This timeline suggests investors should maintain realistic expectations despite the positive regulatory signals.
The regulatory shift represents more than just ETF approvals—it signals broader acceptance of cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class within traditional financial markets. With over 70 crypto ETF applications currently pending SEC review, the coming months will likely determine the future landscape of digital asset investment products in the United States.
Key Takeaways:
- Bloomberg analysts increase crypto ETF approval odds to 90%+
- Litecoin, Solana, and XRP lead with 95% approval probability
- SEC’s positive engagement signals regulatory shift
- Approval timeline may extend through October 2025
- Success builds on Bitcoin ETF’s historic performance
