Meta description: Weekly Crypto Recap shows BTC nearing $90K as Fed cut hopes rise, ETF inflows return, and early signs of market stabilization appear.

Key Takeaways

• BTC nears $90K as Fed cut expectations spark the first meaningful sentiment shift in weeks.
  
• ETF inflows return, signaling improving institutional appetite after heavy November selling.
  
• Altcoin rebounds fade fast, keeping the market firmly in a Bitcoin-led environment.
  
• Fear & Greed Index climbs off extremes, hinting at early stabilization rather than a trend reversal.
  
• Macro data strengthens the Weekly Crypto Recap narrative, with PCE on December 6 set as the next major catalyst.

The week of November 24 – December 1, 2025 finally brought a bit of warmth back into a market that’s been frozen for weeks. Total crypto market cap edged about 1% higher to $2.93 trillion by December 1, as traders started to price in Federal Reserve rate cuts and institutional flows quietly turned less negative.

Bitcoin (BTC) led the move. Price ripped back toward $93,000, logging a 5.12% weekly gain off sub-$87,000 lows as spot ETF data flipped supportive and forced sellers stepped back. But the rally didn’t stick. By the morning of Monday, December 1, BTC had already slipped back below $86,000, dropping straight back into a choppy consolidation band.

Majors followed the same script. ETH, SOL, XRP, and BNB bounced 3–6% alongside BTC, then rolled over into the new week as risk appetite cooled again. The message is clear: this is still a Bitcoin-led, risk-off environment where altcoin rallies are short and quickly sold.

Under the surface, though, the tone is shifting. Macro data is turning more friendly, ETF flows are no longer one-way out, and sentiment is crawling off capitulation lows. The market hasn’t flipped bullish, but it has stopped bleeding.

Market Overview

The market entered December 1, 2025 with a steadier tone as total capitalization held at $2.93 trillion, only slightly below $2.96 trillion from earlier in the week. Trading activity softened during Thanksgiving, and 24-hour volume eased to $126.4 billion, a weekly reduction of about 5%. The CoinMarketCap 20 Index closed at $181.83, falling 5.9% on the day while remaining broadly unchanged over the week, showing rotation rather than a shift in trend.

Image 1: The Crypto Market Overview dashboard from CoinMarketCap shows a cautious rebound forming across major assets. BTC trades at $86,254.87 (-5.11% over 24 hours), ETH at $2,826.01 (-5.74%), BNB at $827.94 (-5.12%), SOL at $126.70 (-7.06%), and XRP at $2.0471 (-6.73%). The Fear & Greed gauge sits at 20 (Fear) in orange, while total market cap stands at $2.93T with $126.4B in daily volume. The capitalization chart shows a light green recovery off the November 24 lows near $2.9T, viewed across a 30-day window ending November 29. The Altcoin Season Index remains at 24/100, underscoring “Bitcoin Season,” as the CMC 20 Index trends lower toward $181.83 throughout the November 3 – December 1 period.

Image 2: The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index dashboard highlights a gradual sentiment thaw. The dial shows 20 (Fear), matching Yesterday’s reading of 20 (Fear) and rising from Last Week’s 12 (Extreme Fear). One month earlier, the index stood at 33 (Fear). The yearly chart overlays the index in yellow against BTC price in gray and volume in green, showing a rebound from the 10-point low on November 22, 2025, following the 83-point high recorded on December 1, 2024. This shift aligns closely with Bitcoin’s recent stabilization in the mid-$80K range.

Image 3: The CMC Altcoin Season Index dashboard highlights Bitcoin’s firm lead in the current market cycle. The index sits at 24/100, with “Bitcoin Season” marked in orange and the slider leaning clearly to the left. Recent readings show Yesterday at 25, Last Week at 23, and Last Month at 33, confirming a steady preference for BTC over alternative assets. The chart plots the index in blue alongside altcoin market cap in brown, moving from the 87 peak on December 4, 2024, down to the 12 low on April 26, 2025, before settling into the low-20 range through November 24. The overall picture is one of a market slowing down and reassessing, with current fear levels echoing periods that have historically marked attractive accumulation zones.

Bitcoin (BTC) Market Structure

Bitcoin is trading at $86,524.72, down 4.24% on the day. The drop reflects a sharp rejection from the recent swing high near $93,000, a level that now acts as immediate resistance. Price is once again sitting on the $85,600–$86,000 support band, a zone that has held repeatedly since late 2024 and forms the lower edge of Bitcoin’s long-term $83,000–$96,000 sideways range.

A clear break below $85,600 would likely speed the move toward $83,000, with $80,000 becoming the next target if weakness extends. For bullish momentum to re-emerge, Bitcoin must secure a confirmed daily close above $93,000, which would open the door toward $96,000 and potentially re-establish upward structure.

Early Signs of Accumulation, but Fragile

Recent price action has produced modest higher lows from the $83,000 bottom, hinting at early accumulation. However, this structure remains fragile. The volume profile between $85,600 and $88,000 shows dense participation from institutional traders, signaling both buying interest and steady distribution from earlier positions.

Bitcoin continues to trade below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both trending downward, confirming ongoing bearish momentum. The estimated RSI around 31 highlights oversold conditions but shows no bullish divergence, meaning momentum has yet to shift decisively.

Bollinger Bands remain wide, showing volatility is still elevated. Recent rebounds have attracted little volume, while sell-offs during the October–November decline came with strong spikes. This pattern emphasizes a market still lacking confident buyers.

Fundamental Profile Remains Strong

Despite market weakness, Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain solid.
Long-term holder supply is above 70%, indicating limited panic selling even through volatility. Miners continue accumulating BTC, supported by stable hashrate and revenue. Spot ETF outflows have been temporary and show no signs of systemic stress. Network liquidity and security remain robust, reinforcing Bitcoin’s long-term value case.

Several macro themes also shape the near-term environment. The U.S. dollar has softened slightly, and markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026, which could support risk assets. However, the upcoming U.S. presidential election cycle and potential adjustments to digital asset regulation may influence capital flows. Global trade frictions and geopolitical tension continue to weigh on sentiment, and Bitcoin’s tight correlation with technology equities keeps its path closely tied to broader liquidity conditions.

Likely Scenarios for the Next 1–2 Weeks

Two scenarios currently stand out. The first is a breakdown through $85,600, which would likely send Bitcoin toward $83,000 and potentially $80,000. The second is a period of consolidation between $85,600 and $93,000 as the market waits for clearer macro signals such as Federal Reserve commentary or key economic data.

A rally toward $93,000 remains possible, although stiff resistance from the declining 50-day EMA and historically weak buying volume may limit any breakout attempt. The bias turns cautiously bullish only if $85,600 holds and Bitcoin begins forming higher highs.

Positioning Considerations

Risk management is essential in this environment. Counter-trend longs near $86,000 offer asymmetric potential but require strict discipline, small position sizes of 1–2%, and protective stops below $83,000. Trend-following shorts near $93,000 become attractive if resistance holds, though they should not be carried through major macro events.

Bitcoin is known for sharp rebounds after steep declines, but these moves often fade quickly. As a result, counter-trend trades should be short-lived, and all setups should be validated by volume. Without confirmation, rallies risk turning into traps in a market defined by high volatility and low conviction.

Ethereum (ETH) Market Outlook

Ethereum is trading at $2,835.68, down 5.20% on the day after a sharp reversal from its recent high near $3,100, which now acts as immediate resistance. The market is once again leaning on the $2,800–$2,850 support zone, a level that has repeatedly held since late 2024 and forms the lower boundary of Ethereum’s long-term $2,650–$3,000 sideways structure.

Key Levels and Immediate Price Structure

The $2,800 level remains the line in the sand. A clean break below it would likely pull Ethereum toward $2,650, with $2,600 becoming the next target if selling pressure accelerates. Meanwhile, $3,100 stands as a major psychological and technical barrier. Only a confirmed daily close above this level would signal a trend reversal and reopen the path toward $3,000+ with conviction.

Recent price action has established modest higher lows from the $2,650 region, suggesting early accumulation. However, this structure is still fragile. The $2,800–$2,950 volume band remains dense, showing that institutions are active here, both defending support and distributing into weak rallies.

Ethereum continues to trade below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both trending downward. This confirms that bearish momentum remains dominant. The RSI near 33 shows oversold conditions and selling fatigue, yet the absence of bullish divergence signals that momentum has not shifted. Bollinger Bands stay wide, reflecting elevated volatility and a trend that has not yet stabilized. Volume remains light on bounce attempts and stronger on pullbacks, a pattern consistent with caution from buyers.

Underlying Fundamentals Remain Resilient

Despite the recent pullback, Ethereum’s core fundamentals continue to provide a solid backdrop for the asset. More than 29 million ETH remains staked, a level that reflects strong long-term commitment and reinforces network security during periods of uncertainty. At the same time, DeFi total value locked has steadied around $42 billion, showing that user activity and liquidity are holding up even as market conditions fluctuate.

The approaching Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December, adds a clear catalyst to the narrative. By aiming to reduce transaction fees by up to 40%, Fusaka has the potential to draw developers and users back into the ecosystem, especially if macro conditions turn more supportive. This upgrade arrives at a moment when the network is searching for renewed momentum, giving Ethereum a well-timed opportunity to strengthen engagement.

Spot ETF outflows have continued, yet these movements appear more aligned with short-term profit rotation than a genuine loss of confidence. On the macro front, a slightly softer U.S. dollar and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026 provide a constructive backdrop for risk assets. Even so, global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment, and these forces tend to dampen investor appetite across the broader crypto landscape.

Ethereum’s correlation with technology equities further ties its near-term performance to broader liquidity trends. When liquidity expands and risk appetite improves, ETH often responds quickly; when conditions tighten, the market tends to stall. This dynamic helps explain the current hesitation, as traders remain sensitive to macro headlines and shifting expectations around monetary policy.

What Comes Next

Given these conditions, Ethereum’s next move will likely fall into one of two clear paths. If $2,800 gives way, price momentum should accelerate toward $2,650, with $2,600 acting as the next logical target. If support holds, the market is more likely to settle into a consolidation band between $2,800 and $3,100 over the next 1–2 weeks, waiting for clearer signals from Fed commentary or upcoming economic data releases.

A push back toward $3,100 cannot be ruled out, especially as oversold conditions deepen. However, the declining 50-day EMA and the consistently weak volume on recent upswings create resistance that price must overcome. A shift toward higher highs would be the first real sign that buyers are ready to reassert control.

Positioning in the Current Environment

This environment rewards traders who prioritize discipline over aggression. Counter-trend longs positioned near $2,850 can offer attractive asymmetry, but they require small size allocations of 1–2% and stops placed below $2,650. Short setups near $3,100 carry lower initial risk, although they must be managed carefully around major macro events.

Ethereum is known for sharp rebounds after steep declines, but these moves often fade quickly without strong volume support. For that reason, counter-trend trades should remain short-duration and volume-driven. Without clear confirmation, rallies risk becoming traps in a market defined by high volatility and cautious participation.

Solana (SOL) Market Outlook

Solana is trading at $127.61, down 4.40% on the day after pulling back sharply from its recent high near $144, which now acts as immediate resistance. Price has returned to the $125–$128 support zone, an area that has repeatedly held since mid-2024 and forms the lower boundary of Solana’s long-term $100–$300 sideways range. If $125 gives way, downside momentum would likely extend toward $115, with a deeper move toward $100 possible if selling pressure intensifies. A confirmed close above $144, on the other hand, would mark a shift in structure and reopen the path toward $150 and higher.

Current Structure and Market Behavior

Solana has built modest higher lows since bottoming near $125, hinting at the first stages of accumulation. Even so, the pattern remains fragile. The $125–$140 volume band shows concentrated institutional activity, signaling that buyers are defending this area while earlier participants may also be unwinding into strength. This dynamic keeps the market in a delicate balance.

Price continues to trade under the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both sloping downward and confirming ongoing bearish momentum. The estimated RSI at 31 reflects oversold conditions and fading seller strength, although the absence of bullish divergence suggests that momentum has not yet turned. Bollinger Bands remain wide, indicating elevated volatility and a trend that has not fully stabilized. Volume behavior reinforces this picture: rebounds have attracted light participation, while October–November sell-offs delivered clear spikes.

Fundamentals and Network Strength

Despite the pullback, Solana’s fundamentals remain firm. DeFi total value locked has stabilized around $13 billion, showing continued ecosystem resilience. Network activity also remains strong, with more than 1 million active users contributing to daily throughput. The Alpenglow upgrade, scheduled for December, aims to reduce fees by 40%, a catalyst that could boost developer and retail engagement once market conditions become more supportive.

Spot ETF flows have been modest and appear driven mainly by short-term positioning. Broader macro factors also continue to influence sentiment. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026 offer potential support; however, global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty still weigh on risk appetite. Solana’s close correlation with memecoins and retail trading cycles adds another layer of volatility, making its near-term trajectory sensitive to shifts in broader altcoin sentiment.

Near-Term Scenarios and Key Levels

Solana’s short-term outlook narrows into two realistic scenarios. If $125 breaks, momentum likely accelerates toward $115, with potential continuation toward $100 if macro headwinds persist. If support holds, prices may consolidate between $125 and $144 over the next 1–2 weeks, especially as traders wait for clarity from the Federal Reserve or major economic releases.

A move back toward $144 remains possible, although the declining 50-day EMA and historically weak volume on prior rallies create a challenging ceiling. The broader bias turns neutral-to-cautiously-bullish only if Solana maintains the $125 base and begins forming higher highs.

Trading Considerations

In this environment, disciplined positioning is essential. Counter-trend longs near $128 can offer attractive asymmetry but require tight risk controls, small position sizes of 1–2%, and stops placed below $120. Trend-following shorts near $144 carry lower initial risk, provided stops sit above $145 and exposure is reduced as major macro events approach.

Solana has a history of sharp and fast rebounds after steep declines, but these moves often fade just as quickly. For that reason, counter-trend trades should be short-lived and confirmed by volume. Without strong participation, rallies risk turning into traps in this high-volatility, low-conviction environment.

XRP (XRP) Market Outlook

XRP is trading at $2.0525, down 4.76% on the day after pulling back from its recent high near $2.27, which now serves as immediate resistance. Price is once again testing the $2.00–$2.05 support zone, a level that has repeatedly held since early 2024 and marks the lower boundary of XRP’s long-term $1.90–$3.00 trading range. If $2.00 breaks, momentum would likely extend toward $1.90, with the possibility of a deeper move toward $1.60. A confirmed close above $2.27, by contrast, would shift structure and open the next leg toward $2.40–$2.60.

Price Structure and Market Behavior

Price action has produced higher lows since bottoming near $2.00, suggesting early accumulation and stronger demand than what BTC or ETH currently show. The $2.00–$2.30 volume band reveals heavy institutional activity, although this same zone also holds pockets of trapped longs from earlier rallies. This mix of fresh interest and overhead supply keeps the market in a delicate balance.

XRP continues to trade below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which remain slanted downward and confirm a persistent bearish trend. The RSI near 36 indicates that selling pressure has eased as price recovers from oversold territory, though the absence of a bullish divergence shows that momentum has not fully turned. Bollinger Bands remain wide, reinforcing the presence of elevated volatility. Recent bounce attempts have generated weak volume, while down days in October and November triggered stronger spikes, evidence that buyers have yet to step in with conviction.

Fundamental Strength and Catalysts

XRP continues to hold a unique position among major altcoins. Several SWIFT pilot programs involving approximately $5 trillion in value are active, validating XRP’s utility in real-world settlement systems. ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) usage remains steady at $1.3 billion, confirming ongoing demand from financial institutions. Potential ETF approval rumors add another layer of optionality for price, especially given XRP’s established institutional narrative.

Spot ETF flows have stayed modest, reflecting short-term positioning rather than long-term weakness. From a macro perspective, a slightly softer U.S. dollar and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026 provide a supportive backdrop. However, global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue to limit appetite for higher-volatility assets. Because XRP is tightly linked to cross-border payment trends, regulatory clarity and global liquidity conditions remain key to its short-term performance.

Scenarios for the Coming Weeks

XRP’s next move is likely to follow one of two paths. If $2.00 breaks, price may accelerate toward $1.90, with $1.60 emerging as the next downside target should volatility expand. If support holds, consolidation between $2.00 and $2.27 is likely over the next 1–2 weeks, especially while traders wait for updates from the Federal Reserve or major economic releases.

A push back to $2.27 remains within reach, although the declining 50-day EMA and historically weak buying volume create a difficult ceiling. The overall bias leans neutral to cautiously bullish, with XRP showing a slightly stronger setup than BTC or ETH thanks to clearer accumulation and firmer fundamental drivers. Even so, higher highs are required before the trend can turn convincingly.

Positioning and Risk Considerations

In this environment, well-defined risk management remains essential. Counter-trend longs near $2.08 offer attractive asymmetry but require tight stops below $1.90 and small size allocations of 1–2%. Trend-following shorts near $2.27 may present lower initial risk as long as stops remain above $2.30 and positions are adjusted ahead of major macro events.

XRP has a history of sharp, fast rebounds after steep declines, although these moves often fade just as quickly. For that reason, counter-trend trades should be short-lived and backed by clear volume confirmation. Without strong participation, rallies risk becoming traps in a market still defined by high volatility and cautious conviction.

Final Outlook

Rate-cut bets (86% December odds) signal Q4 bottoming, echoing 2022’s fear-to-greed pivot. Top ideas: BTC $87K longs, SOL inflows play, ETH V-rebound. Risks: 3% max exposure, 4% stops, macro hedges. Youth (84% hike plans) and policy (Clarity Act) eye 2026 highs; as Lee notes, “Institutional interest not peaked.” Navigate with discipline.

Institutional Inflows and Developments

Flows turned green: BTC ETFs +$128.7M (November 25), cumulative $57.6B YTD despite $3.5B monthly out; ETH +$78.6M, SOL +$53.1M. Texas $10M IBIT for reserves; New Hampshire $100M BTC bonds; JPM structured note on IBIT (16% min return, 1.5x upside). VanEck BNB ETF filed; Grayscale GDOG/GXRP approved. Bhutan 320 ETH stake; Metaplanet $130M BTC loan. VC: Q3 $4.65B (414 deals).

Macroeconomic Backdrop

PPI (2.7%/2.6%) and claims (216K low) support cuts; unemployment steady at 4.4%. Burry: “AI bubble like dot-com, Fed blind to risks.” Amazon $50B AI infra; Trump: No 2026 recession, energy cuts inflation. Japan rate hike weighs yen; oil $58.4B, gold $4,256/oz.

Policy Wins and Updates

SEC ETF thaw: XRP/DOGE approvals, Chainlink pending. UAE DeFi licenses by 2026 (fines $272M); Japan reserves funds for hacks. UK DeFi tax deferral; Turkmenistan 2026 legalization; Bolivia bank custody; TP.HCM-Binance hub. China ban reaffirms; Polymarket CFTC resume. Hassett Fed nod crypto-positive.

Specific Themes

Ethereum Resurgence: Inflows signal bottom; Lee: “V-shape in days, supercycle 2026” like 2017.

Bitcoin Cycle: 35% dip normal (21x >30% historically); Saylor: “No liquidation at $74K debt cover.” Kiyosaki: Reinvest profits, buy dips.

Other News: Tether gold 116 tons, S&P downgrade disputed; US Bancorp Stellar stablecoin test; China mining 14% hashrate underground.

Conclusion

From extreme fear to cautious optimism, this week marks the first real shift toward stability. Macro pressures have eased, institutional flows are starting to turn, and the market finally has space to breathe again. Hougan captures the moment clearly: “Dips filter weak hands. The opportunity belongs to those who stay positioned for what comes next.”

The message is simple. Fundamentals matter more than noise, and the path forward will be shaped by how the market reacts to upcoming data. Keep an eye on the PCE release on December 6, as it will set the tone for rate-cut expectations and broader liquidity. Through every setback, the resilience of this market continues to stand out.