Weekly Recap: BTC Holds $91K as Soft PCE Lifts Market Mood

Key Takeaways

• BTC holds $91K as market cap climbed 6% to $3.11T, signaling resilience despite fear-heavy sentiment.
• Soft PCE at 2.8% pushed Fed cut odds to 86%, giving the market a cautious liquidity boost.
• ETF flows remained mixed, but institutional access expanded through Vanguard and BOA.
• BTC outperformed majors, reinforcing Bitcoin Season with dominance near 58%.
• ETH, SOL, XRP, and BNB recovered selectively, supported by upgrades, payment trials, and policy catalysts.

During December 1–8, 2025, the cryptocurrency market walked a thin line between macro relief and lingering risk. Total capitalization climbed 6% to $3.11 trillion by December 8, driven by Bitcoin’s steady recovery and selective altcoin rotations. Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized around $91,400 after dipping to $83,800 early in the week, posting a 9% weekly gain amid Fed liquidity injections and positive ETF flows mid-period. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, and BNB followed with modest upticks of 5–15%, while sentiment stayed cautious as PCE inflation data tempered aggressive rate-cut expectations.

Macro signals sent mixed messages. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for September, released December 5, showed core inflation at 2.8%—below the 2.9% forecast—pushing the probability for a December 10 Fed rate cut to 86%. Headline PCE at 2.8% (up from 2.7%) still pointed to persistent pressure, keeping bond yields in check and limiting equity gains (Nasdaq +0.31% on December 5). Fed support via $13.5 billion in repo operations on December 2, the second-largest injection since COVID, eased banking stress after QT ended. Sector headwinds came from stablecoin FUD (IMF warnings on sovereignty risks) and fears around corporate crypto holdings (MicroStrategy delisting risk), partially offset by institutional endorsements from Vanguard and Bank of America, which opened ETF access for clients managing trillions in assets.

Market tone shifted from defensive to selectively optimistic. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 24 (Fear) from 20 a week earlier, still in oversold territory similar to mid-2022 consolidation phases. The Altcoin Season Index slipped to 19, deepening Bitcoin Season as alts trailed BTC’s relative strength. This recap reviews price action, technical setups, fundamentals, institutional flows, policy moves, and forward guidance, using CoinMarketCap dashboards and contemporaneous reports as core references.

Price Updates for Major Coins

The market moved through a choppy week. Early selling on PCE anxiety faded as liquidity signals and ETF data improved. By December 8, price action across major assets showed signs of stabilization.

• Bitcoin (BTC) BTC started near $91,400 on December 1 and fell quickly to $83,800 on December 2 as liquidity fears and ETF outflows resurfaced. Buyers stepped in fast, lifting price to $94,100 by December 4. BTC then settled around $91,400 with a +2.18% daily gain and a near-flat +0.04% weekly move. The range remains tight, but sentiment has shifted toward cautious optimism.
• Ethereum (ETH) ETH held near $3,040 for most sessions and strengthened after the Fusaka upgrade on December 4, which lowered fees and boosted scalability. New staking ETPs in Europe added extra support. ETH closed the week unchanged at $3,040, with a solid +2.93% daily gain and a negligible +0.01% weekly change. Price stability signals a healthy setup ahead of upcoming catalysts.
• Solana (SOL) SOL opened at $140 and rallied to $146 on inflows linked to Franklin Templeton’s ETF filing. Profit-taking later in the week erased gains, sending price to $132. SOL still printed a +2.08% daily rise, though weekly performance slipped to -0.93%. On-chain activity and user growth stayed firm, hinting at strength beneath the surface.
• XRP XRP recovered well after dropping to a weekly low at $1.9854. Reports of NYSE-listed entities testing XRP-based settlement solutions pushed price to $2.21 before it eased back. XRP closed at $2.05, up +1.74% on the day but down roughly 7% for the week. Volume stayed light, suggesting the rebound needs stronger confirmation.
• BNB BNB mirrored broader altcoin swings. Price fell from $897 to an intraday low near $802, then rebounded to $894. The token gained +0.93% on the day and ended the week down -0.33%. Support from Kazakhstan’s sovereign investment arm helped stabilize the chart, showing steady institutional interest during volatility.

These moves form a clear “relief consolidation.” BTC dominance at 57.94% continues to reflect a market leaning toward safety while alts lag.

Market Overview

Total market cap reached $3.11 trillion on December 8, rising from $2.93 trillion as risk-on rotations added roughly $180 billion to the market, while 24-hour volume increased to $117.08 billion, a 7% weekly gain that signaled renewed activity after the Thanksgiving slowdown, and the CoinMarketCap 20 Index climbed to $194.33, advancing 2.14% on the day and ~6.8% for the week as broad momentum returned across major assets.

Image 1: Crypto Market Overview dashboard from CoinMarketCap shows a cautious rebound across the market. BTC trades at $91,597 (+2.18%), ETH at $3,137 (+2.93%), BNB at $903 (+0.93%), SOL at $135.92 (+2.08%), and XRP at $2.0829 (+1.74%). The Fear & Greed Index sits at 24 (Fear), while market cap holds near $3.11T with $117.08B in volume. The chart highlights a steady climb from the November 30 dip near $2.9T, tracking a 30-day recovery into December 8. The Altcoin Season Index at 19/100 reinforces Bitcoin Season, and the CMC 20 Index continues its upward path toward $194.33 from early November.

Image 2 captures a steady rise in sentiment. The dial sits at 24 (Fear), compared with 22 yesterday, 20 last week, and 25 last month. The yearly chart layers the index in yellow over BTC price in gray and volume in green, lifting from the 10 low on November 22, 2025 after the 83 peak on December 9, 2024. The move tracks closely with BTC’s rebound from the $84K trough.

Image 3 underscores BTC’s dominance as the Altcoin Season Index holds at 19/100, firmly in “Bitcoin Season.” Readings landed at 20 yesterday, 25 last week, and 30 last month. The chart tracks the index in blue against altcoin cap in brown, sliding from the 82 peak on December 8, 2024 to the 12 low on April 26, 2025, then settling in the low-20s through December 1. 

The setup points to a market absorbing positive signals while sentiment stays aligned with early-2022 basing phases.

Detailed Technical Analysis and Outlook

Bitcoin trades at $91,509, up 1.25% on the day. Price has lifted off the $88,000 low, which now acts as immediate support. BTC moves just under the $92,000 barrier, a level that has capped every attempt since late October and sits at the top of the broader $83,000–$96,000 range. A break above $92,000 can drive momentum toward $94,000 and $96,000. A slip under $88,000 brings $83,000 back into play and can push toward $80,000 if sellers press.

Recent action shows higher lows from the $83,000 base, hinting at accumulation, yet the pattern still needs confirmation. Volume clusters between $88,000 and $91,500, an area where institutions step in but where older positions also unwind. BTC trades below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both pointing lower, which keeps bearish pressure intact. RSI sits near 38, rising from oversold territory and easing selling momentum. Bollinger Bands remain wide, showing volatility stays elevated. Buying volume is still light, while down days draw stronger activity.

Fundamentals remain solid. More than 70% of supply sits with long-term holders, miners continue to accumulate with stable hashrate and revenue, and ETF outflows look temporary rather than structural. Network security and liquidity stay firm. Political catalysts may surface as the U.S. election approaches. Rate-cut expectations for early 2026 continue to build, creating a supportive backdrop for risk assets. Global trade tensions and geopolitical pressure still shape sentiment, keeping Bitcoin closely tied to liquidity trends in tech and equities.

From here, two paths dominate. A drop under $88,000 likely pulls price toward $83,000. Otherwise, BTC may hold a $88,000–$92,000 consolidation while markets wait for clearer macro signals. Any push into $92,000 faces resistance from a declining 50-day EMA and weak buy volume. Bias stays neutral with a mild bullish lean as long as $88,000 remains intact and higher highs start to form.

Positioning demands precision. Longs near $90,000 can work only with tight control and stops under $87,000. Shorts near $92,000 offer cleaner structure with stops above $94,000, though traders must avoid major macro windows. BTC often delivers sharp rebounds after deep pullbacks, yet many fade quickly. Fast execution and strict volume checks are essential in this high-volatility, low-conviction environment.

Ethereum trades at $3,130.06, down 0.14% on the session, and holds a tight consolidation after a sharp rebound from $3,014.34. Price now presses into the $3,150 resistance zone, a ceiling tested repeatedly over the past two days and the top edge of a short-term range between $3,125–$3,140. A clean move through $3,150 can drive momentum toward $3,250 and possibly $3,500. A slip under $3,000 exposes $2,900, then $2,750. Recent candles show steady higher lows from the $3,020 area, suggesting early accumulation, yet the structure still needs confirmation.

Volume sits heavy between $3,000–$3,050, a zone where institutions engage but where older positions also unwind. ETH trades just below the 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the 1-hour chart, both pointing down and signaling continued bearish pressure. RSI holds near 42, balanced and not yet showing a shift in momentum. Bollinger Bands stay wide, reflecting elevated volatility. Buying activity remains light, while down moves draw stronger volume.

On fundamentals, Ethereum’s base stays firm. More than 29 million ETH is staked, reinforcing long-term confidence and network security. DeFi TVL stabilizes around $42 billion, showing resilience after prior pullbacks. The Fusaka upgrade is live, reducing fees and improving scalability, which strengthens future developer and user flow. ETF activity remains modest as institutions navigate near-term uncertainty. Macro conditions still matter: a softer dollar, rising expectations for rate cuts in early 2026, and shifting liquidity trends across tech assets influence ETH’s direction.

From here, ETH likely takes one of two paths. A dip under $3,125 opens room toward $3,100, while holding above $3,125 keeps a $3,125–$3,150 consolidation in play as markets wait for fresh catalysts. A push into $3,150 must overcome resistance from a declining 50-period EMA and weak buy volume. Bias stays neutral with a slight bullish tilt if $3,125 holds and higher highs form.

Positioning demands precision. Longs near $3,128 work only with tight stops under $3,110. Shorts near $3,150 offer structure with stops above the same level. ETH often stages sharp rebounds after deep drops, yet many fade quickly, so timing and volume confirmation matter. In a high-volatility, low-conviction environment, discipline carries more weight than direction.

Solana trades at $136.13, up 0.21% on the session. Price bounced cleanly from $128.00, a support level Solana has defended several times in the past two days. The range stays tight between $128.00–$137.00, and SOL now sits just under $136.30. A push through that level can send price toward $138.00, then $140.50. Losing $135.00 puts $134.00 and $131.00 back in play.

Price has been printing higher lows since the dip near $130.00, hinting at accumulation, though the structure is still early. Volume is stacked between $131.50–$138.00, the zone where both fresh buyers and outgoing positions meet. SOL trades under the 50-period and 200-period MAs on the daily chart, both pointing down, so momentum still leans bearish. RSI sits around 41, steady but not signaling a shift. Bollinger Bands stay wide. Volatility remains high. Buying volume is light, selling volume stronger.

On fundamentals, Solana holds firm. DeFi TVL sits near $13 billion. Network activity stays high with more than 1 million active users. The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade, expected to cut fees by 40%, gives Solana a strong catalyst as conditions improve. ETF flow remains modest while markets wait for clearer signals. Macro drivers—softer dollar, growing expectations for 2026 rate cuts, and shifting liquidity in risk assets—still shape Solana’s short-term path.

Two setups stand out. A dip under $135.00 invites $133.00. Holding above that level keeps a $135.00–$138.00 range in play. A move toward $144.00 is possible, but it must break through heavy resistance from the 50-period EMA with stronger buy volume. Bias stays neutral with a slight bullish lean if $135.00 holds and price starts forming higher highs.

Trade execution needs discipline. Longs near $135.80 work only with tight stops under $134.50. Shorts near $137.00 make sense with stops above $138.50. Solana is known for violent snaps after hard drops, but many fade fast, so timing and volume confirmation matter more than conviction.

XRP is trading at $2.0904, up 0.18% on the session. Price bounced cleanly from $1.9888, a support zone that has held several times over the past two days. The range remains tight between $1.9888 and $2.1089. A break above $2.1089 can drive momentum toward $2.1977 and $2.27. Losing $2.07 opens the path toward $2.0165, then $1.98.

XRP has been forming higher lows since $2.0157, a sign of early accumulation, but the structure is still fragile. Volume stacks between $2.03 and $2.21, an area where large players step in but where older positions also unwind. Price sits under both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the 1 hour chart. Both are sloping lower, which keeps downside pressure intact. RSI sits near 43, steady but not signaling a shift. Bollinger Bands stay wide and volatility remains elevated. Buying volume is thin and sellers still control most of the heavy moves.

Fundamentals remain a clear strength. SWIFT pilot programs worth 5 trillion dollars validate XRP’s role in global payments. ODL flow holds near 1.3 billion dollars, showing consistent real world usage. Rumors around ETF approval add another potential catalyst. Recent ETF flows have been modest as the market digests broader macro conditions. A softer dollar and rising expectations for 2026 rate cuts help risk appetite, though geopolitical tension still drags on sentiment.

Two scenarios stand out. A drop under 2.07 can send XRP toward 2.04. Holding above that zone keeps a 2.07 to 2.11 consolidation in play. A push toward 2.15 is possible but must break through resistance from the declining 50 period EMA with real buy volume. Bias stays neutral with a slight bullish tilt if 2.08 holds and higher highs start to form.

Trade execution needs discipline. Longs near 2.085 only make sense with stops under 2.05. Shorts near 2.0946 offer structure with stops above 2.12. XRP is known for sharp rebounds after fast drops, but many rallies fade quickly. Volume confirmation matters more than conviction in this high volatility environment.

Strategic Takeaways

BTC remains the anchor in Bitcoin Season (dominance 57.94%), with ETH/SOL providing yield/growth via upgrades/ETFs, XRP/BNB trailing on regs but gaining policy nods. BTC vs. alts: Defensive core (BTC) yields 20-35% ann. returns per Pompliano. Allocate: 55% BTC, 20% ETH/SOL, 15% XRP/BNB, 10% stables.

Final Outlook

PCE’s dovish tilt eyes FOMC cuts, echoing 2022’s liquidity-fueled rebound from fear (Index 24). Top ideas: BTC $89K longs, SOL ETF momentum, ETH staking. Risks: 2-3% exposure, 3-5% stops, diversify vs. PCE surprises. As BlackRock forecasts, “Institutional flows to new highs in 2026.” Structural shifts favor holders.

Institutional Inflows and Developments

Flows mixed: BTC ETFs +$58.5M December 3 (IBIT-led), but -$194.6M December 4; cumulative YTD $57.6B. ETH -$9.9M to -$41.5M; SOL +$45.7M. Vanguard enables ETF trading for $11T AUM; BOA recommends 1-4% crypto for high-net-worth. BlackRock IBIT fees $245M/year; Schwab eyes spot BTC/ETH 2026. MicroStrategy holds 650K BTC, $1.4B cash buffer; BitMine 3.73M ETH ($18B). B HODL +2.17 BTC; American Bitcoin +363 BTC.

Macroeconomic Backdrop

PCE 2.8% (core below forecast) lifts cut odds to 86%; ADP jobs -32K adds signal softening, layoffs to 1.17M (AI-linked). Fed repo $13.5B; QT end boosts liquidity. Trump Accounts seed $1K/child; tariffs via 1962 Act. Japan 2Y yield 1% unwinds carry trades; China buys USD vs. yuan +3.3%. Oil $60.1B, gold $4,227/oz.

Policy Wins and Updates

UK Property Act recognizes on-chain assets; stablecoin GBP framework nears. CFTC spot trading approval for BTC/ETH; GENIUS Act rules by Dec end. Japan 20% flat crypto tax 2026; South Korea stablecoin bill Jan. Russia VTB spot trading 2026 for elites; Nasdaq tokenized stocks SEC app. IMF: Regulate stablecoins vs. sovereignty risks.

Specific Themes

Ethereum Resurgence: Fusaka boosts L2s; models value $4,836 fair (58% upside). Lee: “Supercycle akin 2017.”

Bitcoin Cycle: 35% correction normal; Saylor: “70-year runway at $74K debt cover.” Kiyosaki: Buy dips, reinvest.

Other News: Tether reserves $6.78B excess, BDO attested; Ledger MediaTek vuln warning. Lamborghini Web3 platform; Do Kwon 12-year seek.

Conclusion

From FUD to fundamentals, the week underscores crypto’s maturation amid macro flux. As Fidelity’s Johnson views BTC “gold standard,” resilience prevails. Position for cuts, monitor MSCI Jan 15; 2026 beckons with tokenization tailwinds.