Weekly Recap: Pullback Amid Geopolitical Tensions & Key Economic Releases

From Jan 5 to Jan 12, after Bitcoin and other major ones enjoyed solid gains to kick off 2026, prices pulled back slightly this week, with Bitcoin dipping around 1.5% (as of writing) but still holding above the important $90,000 level. The total market capitalization stayed steady around $3.14 trillion, while daily trading volume hovered at $76.61 billion, showing that activity remained healthy even as some investors paused to assess ongoing global events.

A key storyline this week was the continuing fallout from the US-Venezuela situation, where US forces had detained the former president, leading to talks about rebuilding the country's massive oil reserves. Other factors included weaker-than-expected US job numbers, which raised questions about future interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and a delay in a major court ruling on tariffs. Despite these, positive developments like new ETF approvals and policy progress kept the overall tone balanced. For beginners, remember that crypto prices are influenced by both global news and investor sentiment, so weeks like this highlight the importance of staying informed without overreacting to daily fluctuations.

The Crypto Market Overview dashboard from CoinMarketCap captures the week's consolidation phase, with the total market capitalization at $3.14 trillion and 24-hour trading volume at $76.61 billion. Top coins show mixed but mostly modest declines: Bitcoin at $92,058.76 (down 1.53%), Ethereum at $3,198.76 (down 2.03%), BNB at $907.40 (down 0.66%), Solana at $134.02 (up 0.04%), and XRP at $2.0820 (down 0.52%). The Fear and Greed Index is at 41 in neutral territory, while the Altcoin Season Index sits at 31, indicating continued Bitcoin dominance. The market cap chart illustrates a pullback from early January highs but stability above December levels.

Price Updates for Major Coins

If you're new to crypto, price updates are a great way to track how individual coins are performing relative to the broader market. Here's a straightforward look at the key players this week:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Started strong around $92,000-$93,000 but experienced some selling pressure, closing near $92,058 with a 1.53% dip in the latest reading. Weekly performance was flat to slightly down overall, reflecting broader market caution.
• Ethereum (ETH): Followed a similar pattern, pulling back to $3,158 (up 2.03%), but held key support levels amid discussions of upcoming network upgrades that could make it faster and cheaper to use.
• Solana (SOL): Bucked the trend with a small gain to $134.02 (up 5.04%), supported by positive ETF inflows and its reputation for high-speed transactions.
• XRP: Adjusted lower to $2.0820 (down 0.52%), but remained resilient thanks to ongoing regulatory clarity and institutional interest.
• BNB: Declined modestly to $907.40 (down 0.57%), maintaining stability tied to the Binance ecosystem's growth.

These movements show how interconnected the market is—when Bitcoin pulls back, altcoins often follow, but selective strength in coins like Solana highlights opportunities for diversification.

Market Overview: Sentiment Enters Neutral Territory

Let’s prepare for what's coming. This week, indicators showed a shift toward balance after the fear-dominated end of 2025.

In the image above, the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 41 - "Neutral," which is a step up from the low fear levels we saw recently. For context, yesterday it was at 40, last week at 42, and last month at 29. The yearly high reached greed at 76 in May 2025, while the low hit extreme fear at 10 in November 2025. The chart, overlaid with Bitcoin price and volume trends, demonstrates how sentiment often improves during recoveries but can fluctuate with news events.

Now we look at the CMC Altcoin Season Index scoring 31 out of 100, still signaling "Bitcoin Season," meaning Bitcoin continues to outperform most alternative coins. Recent values include yesterday at 28, last week at 25, and last month at 19. The yearly high for altcoin dominance was 78 in September 2025, and the low for Bitcoin season was 12 in April 2025. The 90-day chart shows a gradual uptick, hinting at potential shifts if inflows broaden.

For newcomers, neutral sentiment like this often means the market is pausing to digest news, providing a good time to learn and plan entries without the pressure of extreme highs or lows.

Technical Breakdowns and Outlook

Bitcoin is currently trading at $92,068.21 on the 1-hour chart, down 0.05% on the session, reflecting a consolidation phase after a powerful breakout that pushed price above $90,000 for the first time in weeks — a level that has now become immediate support and aligns with the lower boundary of a newly formed uptrend structure. A break above $94,000 would likely accelerate the rally toward $100,000 and potentially $110,000, while a drop below $89,500 could trigger a retest of $87,500 and then $84,500. Recent price action has formed higher lows since the low near $90,000, signaling early accumulation, but this structure remains fresh and unconfirmed — the market is still in a state of transition, and the volume profile reveals dense activity between $89,500 and $92,000, indicating institutional participation at these levels but also potential distribution zones where earlier buyers may be exiting. Visually, price is trading above both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the 1-hour timeframe, which are now sloping upward, confirming the bullish momentum, while the RSI is estimated at 60, hovering near overbought territory and signaling strong buying pressure, though no clear bearish divergence is visible yet, meaning momentum may still have room to extend. Bollinger Bands remain moderately wide and show no sign of contraction, confirming that volatility is still elevated and the uptrend may not be over, despite the recent consolidation; volume has been flat during bounces and spiked on down moves, underscoring the lack of strong, sustained selling conviction.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin retains exceptionally strong underlying metrics despite short-term weakness. Long-term holder supply exceeds 70%, indicating minimal panic selling, while mining activity continues to accumulate BTC, with hashrate and revenue stable. Spot ETF inflows have surged, signaling renewed institutional demand and validating Bitcoin’s role as digital gold amid geopolitical uncertainty. Network security and liquidity continue to strengthen, underpinning Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. The recent Fed rate cut has provided macro tailwinds, and markets are increasingly pricing in further cuts in early 2026 — a potential tailwind for risk assets. Nevertheless, global trade tensions and ongoing regulatory ambiguity continue to dampen investor appetite for volatile assets like crypto. Bitcoin’s correlation with tech equities means its near-term trajectory remains tightly linked to broader liquidity trends, and while a dovish Fed pivot could spark a relief rally, it would likely remain capped unless accompanied by strong on-chain and volume confirmation.

Given this context, the most plausible scenarios are either a breakdown below $91,000 accelerating toward $90,000, or a continuation of the uptrend toward $94,000 and potentially $100,000 for the next 1–2 days as the market awaits clarity from macro catalysts like Fed commentary or major economic data. A rally to $100,000 is possible but faces stiff resistance from the declining 200-days EMA and historically weak volume on upswings. The bias remains firmly bullish, leaning more optimistic due to strong ETF inflows, rising volume, and the formation of higher highs — but only if $90,500 holds and higher highs develop; otherwise, the path of least resistance is still lower. Traders must prioritize risk management over directional bias. Trend-following longs near $91,000 carry asymmetric reward but require extreme discipline: position sizes should be small (1–2% of capital), with stops tightly placed above $89,500. Conversely, counter-trend shorts near $93,330 offer lower-risk opportunities with stops below $94,500, though these should not be held through major macro events. Critically, Bitcoin has a history of sharp, volatile rallies after extended consolidations — but these often prove sustainable when confirmed by volume. Therefore, trend-following positions should be prioritized; patience and precision are paramount. In this environment, the smartest move is to let the market confirm its intent — wait for a decisive close above $93,000 before committing aggressively.

Ethereum is currently trading at $3,160.47 on the 1-hour chart, up 0.05% on the session, reflecting a healthy retracement after testing resistance near $3,170 — a level that has now become immediate resistance and aligns with the upper boundary of a newly formed uptrend structure. A break above $3,200 would likely accelerate the rally toward $3,400 and potentially $3,600, while a drop below $3,100 could trigger a retest of $3,050 and then $2,970. Recent price action has formed higher lows since the low near $3,050, signaling early accumulation, but this structure remains fresh and unconfirmed — the market is still in a state of transition, and the volume profile reveals dense activity between $3,080 and $3,160, indicating institutional participation at these levels but also potential distribution zones where earlier buyers may be exiting. Visually, price is trading above both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the 1-hour timeframe, which are now sloping upward, confirming the bullish momentum, while the RSI is estimated at 60, hovering near overbought territory and signaling strong buying pressure, though no clear bearish divergence is visible yet, meaning momentum may still have room to extend. Bollinger Bands remain moderately wide and show no sign of contraction, confirming that volatility is still elevated and the uptrend may not be over, despite the recent consolidation; volume has been flat during bounces and spiked on down moves, underscoring the lack of strong, sustained selling conviction.

Fundamentally, Ethereum retains exceptionally strong underlying metrics despite short-term weakness. Supply on exchanges has dropped to historic lows of 8.7%, signaling long-term holding behavior and reduced sell pressure from retail and institutional holders alike. Over 29 million ETH remains staked, reflecting robust network security and confidence in its future utility. The recent Fusaka upgrade has already been implemented, reducing fees and improving scalability — a tangible catalyst that should support developer and user activity going forward. On-chain metrics show staking inflows reversing, with 745k ETH pending in versus only 360k out, signaling renewed institutional accumulation. Upcoming upgrades like blob expansions and gas futures aim to enhance throughput and reduce fees, positioning ETH as a structural beneficiary of macro liquidity shifts. On the macro front, the U.S. dollar has shown slight weakness, and markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026 — a potential tailwind for risk assets. Nevertheless, global trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to dampen investor appetite for volatile assets like crypto. Ethereum’s high correlation with tech equities means its near-term trajectory remains tightly linked to broader liquidity trends, and while a dovish Fed pivot could spark a relief rally, it would likely remain capped unless accompanied by strong on-chain and volume confirmation.

Given this context, the most plausible scenarios are either a breakdown below $3,120 accelerating toward $3,050, or a continuation of the uptrend toward $3,400 and potentially $3,600 for the next 1–2 days as the market awaits clarity from macro catalysts like Fed commentary or major economic data. A rally to $3,400 is possible but faces stiff resistance from the declining 200-days EMA and historically weak volume on upswings. The bias remains firmly bullish, leaning more optimistic due to strong on-chain metrics, rising volume, and the formation of higher highs — but only if $3,100 holds and higher highs develop; otherwise, the path of least resistance is still lower. Traders must prioritize risk management over directional bias. Trend-following longs near $3,120 carry asymmetric reward but require extreme discipline: position sizes should be small (1–2% of capital), with stops tightly placed above $3,050. Conversely, counter-trend shorts near $3,200 offer lower-risk opportunities with stops below $3,300, though these should not be held through major macro events. Critically, Ethereum has a history of sharp, volatile rallies after extended consolidations — but these often prove sustainable when confirmed by volume. Therefore, trend-following positions should be prioritized; patience and precision are paramount. In this environment, the smartest move is to let the market confirm its intent — wait for a decisive close above $3,200 before committing aggressively.

XRP is currently trading at $2.0823 on the 1-hour chart, down 0.04% on the session, reflecting a consolidation phase after testing resistance near $2.0858 — a level that has now become immediate resistance and aligns with the upper boundary of a short-term sideways range established between $2.05 and $2.09. A break above $2.0992 would likely accelerate the rally toward $2.17 and potentially $2.28, while a drop below $2.04 could trigger a retest of $2.00 and then $1.91. Recent price action has formed higher lows since the low near $2.00, signaling early accumulation, but this structure remains fragile and unconfirmed — the market is still in a state of uncertainty, and the volume profile reveals dense activity between $2.05 and $2.11, indicating institutional participation at these levels but also potential distribution zones where earlier buyers may be exiting. Visually, price is trading just below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the 1-hour timeframe, which are sloping downward, confirming the bearish momentum, while the RSI is estimated at 42, hovering near neutral territory and signaling balanced momentum, though no clear bullish divergence is visible yet, meaning momentum has not fully shifted. Bollinger Bands remain moderately wide and show no sign of contraction, confirming that volatility is still elevated and the downtrend may not be over, despite the recent bounce; volume has been flat during bounces but spiked on down moves, underscoring the lack of strong, sustained buying conviction.

Fundamentally, XRP retains unique advantages that set it apart from other altcoins. ETF inflows have surged, nearing $1 billion in AUM, signaling renewed institutional demand and validating its utility in traditional finance. SWIFT pilot programs worth $5 trillion are actively underway, while ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) volume remains steady at $1.3 billion, confirming real-world usage and demand from financial institutions. AI integrations for ledger efficiency are enhancing its technical appeal, positioning XRP as a next-generation payment rail. Regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions has bolstered confidence, reducing legal overhang and positioning XRP as a compliance-friendly asset for cross-border payments. The upcoming ETF approval rumors could serve as a major catalyst if confirmed, especially given XRP’s strong institutional narrative. On the macro front, the U.S. dollar has shown slight weakness, and markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026 — a potential tailwind for risk assets. Nevertheless, global trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to dampen investor appetite for volatile assets like crypto. XRP’s correlation with cross-border payment trends means its performance remains tightly linked to broader macro liquidity and regulatory clarity, and while a dovish Fed pivot could spark a relief rally, it would likely remain capped unless accompanied by strong on-chain and volume confirmation.

Given this context, the most plausible scenarios are either a breakdown below $2.05 accelerating toward $2.00, or a range-bound consolidation between $2.05 and $2.0992 for the next 1–2 days as the market awaits clarity from macro catalysts like Fed commentary or major economic data. A rally to $2.0992 is possible but faces stiff resistance from the declining 50-period EMA and historically weak volume on upswings. The bias remains mildly bullish, leaning more optimistic due to consistent ETF inflows, advancing regulatory clarity, and the formation of higher lows — but only if $2.05 holds and higher highs develop; otherwise, the path of least resistance is still lower. Traders must prioritize risk management over directional bias. Counter-trend longs near $2.07 carry asymmetric reward but require extreme discipline: position sizes should be small (1–2% of capital), with stops tightly placed above $2.00. Conversely, trend-following shorts near $2.0992 offer lower-risk opportunities with stops below $2.12, though these should not be held through major macro events. Critically, XRP has a history of sharp, volatile rebounds after steep declines — but these often prove short-lived. Therefore, counter-trend positions should never be held too long; patience and precision are paramount. In this environment, the smartest move is to let the market confirm its intent — wait for a decisive close above $2.10 before committing aggressively.

Macroeconomic Backdrop: Geopolitical Shock, Fed Caution, and Consumer Pressures

The bigger economic picture plays a huge role in crypto prices, as global events can influence investor risk appetite. This week was packed with developments that kept everyone watching.

The US-Venezuela saga continued to dominate headlines, with updates on the detention of former President Maduro and his court appearance in New York on January 6, where he denied charges and claimed he was kidnapped. The next hearing is set for March 17. Meanwhile, interim President Delcy Rodriguez took over, and the US is pushing for major oil companies to invest $100 billion in rebuilding infrastructure. This could boost US energy security and corporate profits but raises tensions with China (which has loaned over $60 billion to Venezuela) and Russia (escorting oil tankers). Trump canceled a planned military strike due to cooperation on prisoner releases, showing some de-escalation.

Economic data was mixed: The ADP private jobs report added only 41,000 positions in December 2025, below expectations, while the official non-farm payrolls came in at 50,000—also weaker than forecasted at 73,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.4%, but wage growth was modest at 0.3%. These numbers suggest a cooling labor market, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, though probabilities for the January 28 meeting are low at 11.6%. Fed minutes from the previous meeting showed divisions, with some members worried about sticky inflation.

Tariffs were another focus: The Supreme Court delayed a ruling on Trump's emergency powers, keeping current tariffs in place. These have already generated $195 billion in 2025 and $62 billion so far in 2026, helping reduce the trade deficit to $29.4 billion in October. Trump is preparing alternatives if needed, as stated by economic advisor Kevin Hassett.

Consumer pressures loomed large with the student debt crisis restarting garnishments on $1.6 trillion affecting 42 million Americans, potentially curbing spending. Real estate remains sluggish with mortgage rates at 5.99% after Trump's directive for $200 billion in securities purchases. China reported higher inflation at 0.8% CPI, driven by food prices, while precious metals like gold ($4,350-$4,562) and silver ($70-$80 after peaking) corrected after strong runs.

For beginners, these macro factors explain why crypto doesn't move in isolation—positive geopolitics can boost risk assets like Bitcoin, while weak jobs data might signal more supportive policies ahead.

Institutional Inflows: Reversed to Strong Positives with Growing Adoption

Regarding institutional funds, this week saw a reversal from early outflows: 

• Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of $486 million on one day but stabilized, with cumulative inflows over $1.2 billion in the first days of 2026.
• Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $159 million mid-week but earlier inflows of $114 million.
• Solana and XRP ETFs attracted consistent money, with Solana at +$13.64 million and XRP at +$8.72 million on key days. 

Overall, the trend is positive, as noted by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas: "Spot Bitcoin ETFs are entering 2026 with strong momentum. In just the first two days, net inflows exceeded $1.2 billion."

Bank of America gave a green light for recommending four Bitcoin ETFs (Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, BlackRock) to clients, suggesting 1-4% allocations based on risk tolerance. Morgan Stanley is launching a digital asset wallet in the second half of 2026 for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and tokenized assets. PwC is expanding into stablecoins and tokenization auditing.

Corporates like MicroStrategy added 1,287 Bitcoin at ~$90,391 each, boosting holdings to 673,783 BTC worth $60-61 billion. Metaplanet and El Salvador continued accumulations. These moves show growing confidence among large entities.

For new investors, this means crypto is becoming more mainstream—think of it as big money validating the space, which can lead to steadier prices over time.

Policy Wins: Regulatory Momentum Accelerates Globally

Clear rules are essential for crypto's growth, and this week saw progress that could make the market safer and more accessible.

The US regulatory landscape is fairly quite “inactive” with not so much to be mentioned. However, South Korea seems to be back in the race with plans to approve Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2026 and enact a Digital Asset Law requiring full reserves for stablecoins. The UK's upcoming 2027 regulations will require licenses, similar to traditional finance. Lloyds Bank in the UK made history by buying government bonds with tokenized deposits.

These wins reduce uncertainty and encourage more participation—for beginners, it means crypto is moving toward being as regulated and trustworthy as stocks or bonds.

Conclusion: Consolidation with Underlying Strength

This week tempered early-2026 enthusiasm with pullbacks—BTC ~$92,058, market cap $3.14T, Fear & Greed at 41—but underlying positives like inflows and policy wins shine through. Geopolitics tested resilience, proving crypto's maturity.

Outlook bright: Evolving cycles, tokenization growth signal upside.

Key Guidance: Buy quality dips, focus on education, watch labor/tariff data. Crypto's future is accessible and promising for all.