Weekly Crypto Recap Jan 19–26, 2026: Bitcoin Pullback

The week from January 19 to January 26, 2026 delivered a sharp reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift in crypto markets. Early-year optimism faded as prices came under pressure from rising geopolitical tension and weaker economic signals.

Bitcoin led the decline, sliding below $88,000 and dragging the broader market lower. Total crypto market capitalization fell to around $2.96 trillion. Even so, daily trading volume stayed elevated near $119.5 billion, indicating active selling alongside steady dip-buying interest at lower price levels.

The main trigger came from renewed U.S.–EU tensions linked to Greenland. President Trump warned of heavy tariffs in response to potential European retaliation, injecting fresh uncertainty across global markets. Equities sold off, while traditional safe-havens such as gold and silver climbed to new all-time highs. Bitcoin showed mixed behavior in this environment, opening the week with a sharp drop before stabilizing as buyers stepped in.

For newer participants, weeks like this illustrate how macro and political events can quickly reshape crypto price action. At the same time, strong pullbacks often create more favorable entry zones for those who continue to believe in the long-term digital asset thesis.

Image 1: shows the CoinMarketCap Crypto Market Overview dashboard capturing the week’s downside momentum. Total market capitalization stands at $2.96T, while 24h volume reaches $119.5B, reflecting heavy activity during the pullback.

The largest assets are broadly in the red. Bitcoin trades at $87,813.19 (-0.94%), Ethereum at $2,867.91 (-2.24%), BNB at $870.43 (-1.05%), Solana at $122.28 (-3.25%), and XRP at $1.8780 (-0.88%).

Sentiment indicators also weaken. The Fear and Greed Index drops to 29, placing the market in fear territory. The Altcoin Season Index sits at 29, reinforcing a Bitcoin-led market environment rather than broad altcoin strength.

Overall, the chart highlights a clean reversal from January’s highs, visually underlining the shift from early-month upside momentum into a clear market pullback.

Price Updates for Major Coins

Price updates offer a quick way to track how individual coins move relative to the broader market. Below is a clean snapshot of the key players this week:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Opened near $92,000, then sold off hard and finished around $87,813 in the snapshot (-0.94%). Weekly losses reached roughly 5–6%, pressured by tariff headlines and soft jobs data.
• Ethereum (ETH): Slid from the $3,200 area to $2,867 (-2.24%) as market-wide weakness outweighed optimism around upcoming network upgrades.
• Solana (SOL): Dropped to $122.21 (-3.25%), facing increased ecosystem scrutiny during a risk-off environment.
• XRP: Fell to $1.8780 (-0.88%), influenced by global tension while still holding above key support zones.
• BNB: Pulled back to $870.43 (-1.05%), showing relative resilience but still participating in the broader sell-off.

These moves highlight how tightly crypto trades with global risk sentiment—drawdowns can hit fast, and rebounds often follow once uncertainty cools.

Market Overview: Sentiment Enters Neutral Territory

Market indicators are like gauges on a car's dashboard—they tell you the overall health and mood of the crypto space. This week, they reflected increased caution.

Image 2: The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 29 ("Fear"), down from neutral, with values: yesterday 34, last week 45, last month 27. Yearly high greed 76 (May 2025), low extreme fear 10 (Nov 2025). The chart correlates with Bitcoin's downtrend, showing sentiment souring on news.

Image 3: The CMC Altcoin Season Index at 29/100 indicates "Bitcoin Season," with Bitcoin leading declines. Values: yesterday 26, last week 26, last month 16. Yearly high altcoin season 78 (Sep 2025), low Bitcoin season 12 (Apr 2025). The 90-day chart shows volatility but no major shift.

Fear levels like this often mark bottoms, historically, they precede recoveries when fundamentals improve.

Technical Breakdowns and Outlook

The BTC 1-hour chart still points to a bearish continuation. Price broke down from the $91,000 area and has printed lower highs and lower lows. Bitcoin is now testing local support around $87,000–$87,909, after dipping to a 2026 low near $86,007 earlier today. Selling pressure has cooled compared with the prior leg down, and RSI (14) is back near 50.31, which signals neutral momentum, but the trend remains fragile. Both the 50 EMA (~$88,434) and 200 EMA (~$90,182) are sloping down, and price is still trading below both, so these levels act as dynamic resistance and keep the medium-term bias bearish.

Macro sentiment is also working against risk assets. Geopolitical tension has pushed capital toward traditional safe havens, and gold has surged above $5,000, creating a visible split between macro flows and crypto. Institutional support has weakened as well, with US Spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing roughly $1.7B in outflows over the past week. Traders are also positioning ahead of key catalysts, including the Fed’s first rate decision of the year, government shutdown risk, and new IRS reporting rules effective January 1, 2026. In this setup, many long-term holders are using small bounces to reduce exposure.

Near-term direction depends on whether BTC can reclaim its short-term averages. If BTC posts a daily close below $86,000, downside risk increases and the next zone to watch sits around $78,000–$81,250. If buyers regain control, BTC needs a clean break above $88,500 and a hold above $90,000 to retest the 200 EMA area near ~$91,500.

Trade plan: Keep a cautious “sell rallies” bias until structure improves. Short setups make most sense near $88,500 if the 50 EMA keeps rejecting price. Long setups require a confirmed break above $90,000 with strong volume; otherwise, only consider dip entries closer to $84,000 with a tight stop below $83,000.

Ethereum’s 1-hour chart still shows a bearish structure. Price has formed lower highs and lower lows, broke below the $2,900 consolidation zone, and recently printed a local bottom near $2,731. Both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA are sloping downward, and ETH is currently having trouble reclaiming the 50 EMA as support, so it continues to behave like resistance. Selling pressure has eased, though, because RSI is up to 53.42 after recovering from oversold levels. This shift supports a short-term stabilization or a relief bounce, not a confirmed trend reversal.

On the fundamental side, sentiment remains cautious. Macro conditions, regulation headlines, and institutional flows continue to cap risk appetite. Ethereum still has a supportive narrative from anticipated upgrades, but ETH price action remains highly dependent on Bitcoin, which still drives market direction. As long as BTC stays unstable, ETH will struggle to hold gains and protect support.

In the near term, two scenarios stand out. If ETH fails to break and hold above the 50 EMA, price can revisit $2,731, with downside extension toward $2,600. If ETH closes firmly above $2,911, bulls can push toward the $3,015 psychological zone.

Trade plan: A conservative approach is to wait for a clear break above EMA resistance before committing. More aggressive traders can consider entries near $2,800, place a tight stop below $2,730, and target the $3,000 area. Avoid chasing the current bounce until the EMA slope starts flattening, since a downsloping EMA still signals persistent selling pressure.

Solana’s 1-hour chart still reflects a clear bearish structure. Price sold off sharply from the $144 resistance zone and now trades near $122.93. The selling wave has cooled because RSI (14) has recovered to 49.82, which signals a move out of oversold conditions and into a consolidation phase. Even so, a reversal is not confirmed. Both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA continue to slope downward, and they remain strong overhead resistance that limits any quick rebound.

Fundamentals also keep SOL in a high-volatility setup. The Solana ecosystem has supportive narratives, including RWA integration and expectations around the Alpenglow mainnet upgrade, but SOL still behaves like a high-beta asset that depends on global liquidity. With risk sentiment pressured by geopolitical uncertainty and large outflows from crypto investment products, investors are prioritizing safer exposure over aggressive altcoin risk. This flow dynamic is keeping SOL capped below key psychological levels.

Bearish scenario: If SOL fails to break and hold above $127.02 (near the 50 EMA), price can retest $116.56. A clean break below $116.56 increases downside risk toward the $110 support zone.

Bullish scenario: If SOL breaks above $129.58 and holds an hourly close above it (reclaiming the 50 EMA), momentum can improve and open a move toward $141.09.

Trade plan: Maintain a neutral-to-bearish bias while price remains below the 50 EMA. Avoid chasing longs in this structure. A dip-buy only makes sense if SOL stabilizes around $118–$120, with a strict stop below $115, and a relief-rally target near $132.            

The XRP 1-hour chart shows a bearish consolidation after a sharp drop from the $2.25 peak to a local low near $1.81. XRP is now trying to build a base around $1.88. Selling pressure has eased because RSI has recovered to 53.62, which sits in neutral territory, but the structure still looks fragile. The 50 EMA (~$1.91) and 200 EMA (~$1.94) both slope downward and sit above price, so they continue to act as strong dynamic resistance and keep the short-term trend bearish.

Fundamentals in early 2026 present a mixed picture. XRP benefits from improving regulatory clarity after the SEC appeal was dismissed and from progress on the Clarity Act in the U.S. Ripple also strengthens the narrative around cross-border payments through the launch of Ripple National Trust Bank. However, macro uncertainty still dominates market behavior. Tariff threats and shifting expectations around Fed policy have pushed investors into a risk-off posture, and crypto investment products have seen meaningful outflows, which reduces near-term upside.

Two short-term paths stand out. If XRP fails to reclaim $1.91 and breaks below $1.88, price can slide toward the $1.75 area and possibly extend to $1.61. If XRP breaks above $1.96 with strong volume, the market can treat the move as a trend shift and target a retest near $2.16.

Trade plan: A wait-and-see approach remains appropriate in this structure. A dip-buy only makes sense near $1.81, with a tight stop below $1.75, and an upside target around $2.05. A safer long entry requires an hourly close back above the 200 EMA (~$1.94) to confirm bearish momentum has faded.

Macroeconomic Backdrop: Geopolitical Shock, Fed Caution, and Consumer Pressures

The global landscape has become increasingly volatile, directly impacting investor risk appetite across all asset classes, including cryptocurrency.

Geopolitical Turbulence and Safe-Havens

Geopolitics dominated the headlines as the US-EU standoff over Greenland escalated into threats of heavy tariffs and historic negotiations. While global stocks suffered, safe-haven assets surged, with Gold hitting $5.000 and Silver briefly touching $100. Simultaneously, intensified US-Iran conflicts boosted energy prices. Bitcoin and other digital assets showed resilience, often decoupling from equities to act as a hedge against traditional market turmoil during these periods of high uncertainty.

Sticky Inflation and Fed Policy Shifts

Economic data provided a "hawkish" surprise as the CPI rose 0.4% monthly, pushing the annual rate to 2.7%. This hotter-than-expected inflation print effectively crushed hopes for immediate interest rate cuts; markets now price in only 1.5 cuts for the entirety of 2026. Adding to the tension, Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces an ongoing investigation into past insider trading allegations, potentially undermining confidence in the Fed's neutrality just as Governor Lisa Cook emphasized the need to maintain steady, restrictive rates.

Labor Market Cooling and Consumer Pressure

The US labor market signaled a slowdown, with non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, missing the 73,000 forecast. While unemployment remains low at 4.4%, modest wage growth suggests a cooling economy. On the consumer side, the resumption of student loan garnishments for 42 million Americans is expected to curb discretionary spending. Despite government efforts to lower borrowing costs, mortgage rates remain stagnant at 5.99%, further stalling the real estate sector.

This interplay explains why the market doesn't trade in a vacuum. While geopolitical instability can spark "safe-haven" rallies for Bitcoin, sticky inflation and a cautious Fed create a ceiling for growth by restricting liquidity. Navigating the current environment requires balancing these macro-driven "risk-on" and "risk-off" signals.

Institutional Inflows: Reversed to Strong Positives with Growing Adoption

Big institutions add credibility and steady capital to crypto, and this shift often makes the market feel safer for everyday investors.

This week, ETF flows showed a reset after the early-year jitters. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $486 million on one day, then stabilized, and the first days of 2026 still delivered more than $1.2 billion in net inflows overall. Ethereum ETFs saw a mid-week outflow of $159 million, following earlier inflows of $114 million. Solana and XRP ETFs continued to attract consistent demand, with Solana at +$13.64 million and XRP at +$8.72 million on key sessions. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas summarized the tone clearly: “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are entering 2026 with strong momentum. In just the first two days, net inflows exceeded $1.2 billion.”

Institutional adoption also accelerated beyond ETFs. Bank of America approved recommendations for four Bitcoin ETFs—Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, and BlackRock—and suggested 1–4% portfolio allocations depending on risk tolerance. Morgan Stanley plans to launch a digital asset wallet in H2 2026 for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and tokenized assets. PwC is expanding services around stablecoins and tokenization audits, which signals deeper infrastructure buildout.

Corporate accumulation stayed active as well. Tether added another large Bitcoin purchase. El Salvador increased its national reserves to 7,500 BTC. Metaplanet continued expanding its holdings. MicroStrategy added 1,287 BTC at roughly $90,391 per coin, lifting total holdings to 673,783 BTC, valued around $60–61 billion.

Taken together, these moves push crypto closer to the mainstream. Large capital often brings deeper liquidity and more consistent demand, and this dynamic can reduce extreme volatility over time—although short-term swings still remain part of the market’s DNA.

Policy Wins: Regulatory Momentum Accelerates Globally

Clear rules are essential for crypto's growth, and this week saw progress that could make the market safer and more accessible.

In the US, the CLARITY Act for crypto regulation was delayed but is expected to pass soon, providing clearer rules for banks and digital assets. The Senate Agriculture Committee is set to vote on a crypto market structure bill on January 15, though it faces hurdles over potential conflicts with Trump family-linked memecoins. Florida's new law effective July 1, 2026, allows a state Bitcoin reserve if the asset's market cap exceeds $500 billion (currently only Bitcoin qualifies).

Globally, the UK will bring crypto under formal regulation by 2027, requiring licenses similar to traditional finance. These developments reduce uncertainty, encourage big institutions to participate, and protect everyday users.

Specific Themes: Cycle Evolution, Tokenization, and Multi-Chain Future

Several key ideas emerged this week, helping explain where crypto is headed.

The debate on Bitcoin's 4-year cycle continues: After a flat 2025, analysts like Tom Lee predict Bitcoin could hit $250,000 in 2026 if patterns break, driven by institutional inflows and low adoption. Ethereum is addressing its "trilemma" (balancing decentralization, security, and speed) with upgrades like ZKEVM (faster proofs) and PeerDAS (efficient verification), targeting 128-bit security by year-end.

Tokenization—turning real-world assets like stocks or real estate into blockchain tokens—is booming, with experts like Rob Hadick saying Ethereum and Solana will both play big roles—ETH for high-value stable finance, SOL for speed and volume. Stablecoins surged 525% in Visa spending last year, from $14.6 million to $91.3 million.

Zcash faced a setback with its core team departing over governance issues, but the protocol remains operational as open-source—highlighting risks in smaller projects.

These themes show crypto's real-world utility beyond speculation, like faster payments or secure assets.

Other News: Resilience, Upgrades, and Everyday Adoption

Beyond the headlines, several stories added color to the week.

Crypto showed resilience amid the Venezuela news, with Bitcoin acting as a hedge. Discord filed for an IPO, potentially valuing at billions. Rumble launched a non-custodial wallet for tips in Bitcoin, USDT, and gold tokens. The IMF is taking a pragmatic view on Bitcoin. Mining profitability is low, but national adoption (El Salvador) continues.

Ethereum's blob increase to 21 and potential gas limit hike to 80 million promise cheaper transactions. AI's job impacts were discussed, with productivity gains but slower hiring in big firms.

These updates illustrate crypto's growing integration into daily life and finance.

Conclusion: Consolidation with Underlying Strength

The week of January 19-26, 2026 saw sharp pullbacks—BTC ~$87,909 (down ~5-6% weekly), cap $2.96T, Greed 29—as Greenland tensions and CPI surprises hit risk assets. Yet, inflows, policy wins like CLARITY, and hedges in gold-like behavior highlight resilience. Outlook positive: Cycle evolution, tokenization drive growth. Guidance: Buy quality dips in BTC/ETH, educate on macro, patience unlocks potential.